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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

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12z is unfourtunatley not much different. Semi discrete/discrete cells in a favorable environment. Only difference from the 11z is that there are less cells. These congeal into a line the next 2 frames, but with the HRRRs overconvection bias, I think they might stay discrete for longer.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Central and East Kentucky gets lambasted with tornadic supercells View attachment 41752
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Pretty nasty run for my neck of the woods. I think Central KY has a chance of seeing some tornadic supercells today. As they move eastward they’re going to run into some barren kinematics over in Eastern KY but could still have a high wind threat attached. May do some chasing today depending on how those storms fire up.
 
One thing to keep an eye on is all that crapvection over KY right now and if that clears out or keeps training and back building. It could easily sap the atmosphere for the later round. The HRRR runs last night just had a small round of storms going through southern KY but the radar mosaic over KY right now is just full of storms
 
ColdFront said:
One thing to keep an eye on is all that crapvection over KY right now and if that clears out or keeps training and back building. It could easily sap the atmosphere for the later round. The HRRR runs last night just had a small round of storms going through southern KY but the radar mosaic over KY right now is just full of storms
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Have been watching this as well. Cells were near Little Rock when I woke up 2 hours ago, now just north of Memphis and seems like the back end is weakening instead of back building. Not expecting this to be our saving grace but wondering if it will lay down any outflow boundaries for later today.
 
I will say, at least in Central KY, it has that “feel” this morning. Very humid and soupy, with a hazy sky already this early. The only thing really missing is the southerly wind. We have so much CAPE sitting around, especially being uncapped, I could easily see that making up for any deficiencies in low level shear later.
 
Wind Driven Coconut said:
Have been watching this as well. Cells were near Little Rock when I woke up 2 hours ago, now just north of Memphis and seems like the back end is weakening instead of back building. Not expecting this to be our saving grace but wondering if it will lay down any outflow boundaries for later today.
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Yeah. Should and that’s what am thinking now …
 
ColdFront said:
I will say, at least in Central KY, it has that “feel” this morning. Very humid and soupy, with a hazy sky already this early. The only thing really missing is the southerly wind. We have so much CAPE sitting around, especially being uncapped, I could easily see that making up for any deficiencies in low level shear later.
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Yeah would think low level shear will increase with the approaching trough….
 
Not too concerned about atmospheric recovery this morning. Total clearing behind this convection. SRH values are through the roof in areas of locally backed winds in Missouri near an emedded shortwave right now. While shear vectors in the threat area aren't forecasted to be quite as perpendicular, any localized backing with initial explosive development will drive a significant tornado threat, especially early in the period.
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Something that I have been thinking about is that the timing of these storms today and tonight is potentially going to coincide with some area high school's graduation ceremonies taking place. I know (or at least hope) school administrators are keeping tabs of the situation, but I worry about people being caught off guard when storms strike, especially those coming from outside the area.
 
mariachi507 said:
Can anybody tell me what time this party is supposed to get going? I haven't been paying much attention to the weather this month, so this has caught me off guard.

.... Just as I'm driving to do some work in Louisville.
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Storms should form around 18z to 19z, and then 20z to 00z is the peak tornado threat. Anything beyond that should be when the storms congeal into a line.
 
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