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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

Cyclonic Paracosm said:
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Now, what in the actual crap, a "high-end, long track tornado will be possible"
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I mean we can't act like this hasn't been forecasted before in history. My assumption is they would've went high if there was the possibility of a few or more long track, violent tornadoes. Fill free to disagree but I believe this tracks with the brand of a MOD risk. He also didn't mention possible higher probabilities, but we know he can be sneaky at times. I think if they were to go high, it'd probably be at the 12:30 PM ET SPC outlook.
 
cg9450 said:
They’re just leaving room for a EF4-5… and they just.. know it. Cape, Shear, and Helicity numbers read like a supercell factory. I’d bet they’re waiting on those midmorning CAMs. Not sure what the population requirement to go high is, but my lord.
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I don't think population matters when it comes to determining whether or not to issue a high risk, just saying.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I mean we can't act like this hasn't been forecasted before in history. My assumption is they would've went high if there was the possibility of a few or more long track, violent tornadoes. Fill free to disagree but I believe this tracks with the brand of a MOD risk. He also didn't mention possible higher probabilities, but we know he can be sneaky at times. I think if they were to go high, it'd probably be at the 12:30 PM ET SPC outlook.
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yeah, but its been a min since they had lil section of a discussion for a singular tornado, but def something to keep an eye on
 
I know there's going to be a lot of people blowing up the SPC comment section on social media asking "WHY NOT HIGH RISK" and even some people in here who think they should issue one. Hot take, but I don't think it really matters as much as you think if the SPC issues a high risk or not, because at the end of the day, the average joe isn't going to be looking at the SPC website for their forecast, they're instead going to be watching their favorite local meteorologist. It's up to the local METs to relay the threat to the public, which is that there's a good possibility for several strong tornadoes today, and perhaps even a long-track tornado. So does it really matter at this point if the SPC goes high or not? I don't think so. Heck the outlooks are mainly made for local county and state EMA's anyways for preparation.

I mean I sat down yesterdsay morning and saw the three local TV stations here in the South Bend IN market display the 10% hatched tornado risk for the area, and not one MET from either station mentioned once the possibility of a strong tornado. That even included the local NWS office in my area (IWX). That just goes to show that the local meteorlogist may not even role with the SPC's narrative.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I know there's going to be a lot of people blowing up the SPC comment section on social media asking "WHY NOT HIGH RISK" and even some people in here who think they should issue one. Hot take, but I don't think it really matters as much as you think if the SPC issues a high risk or not, because at the end of the day, the average joe isn't going to be looking at the SPC website for their forecast, they're instead going to be watching their favorite local meteorologist. It's up to the local METs to relay the threat to the public, which is that there's a good possibility for several strong tornadoes today, and perhaps even a long-track tornado. So does it really matter at this point if the SPC goes high or not? I don't think so. Heck the outlooks are mainly made for local county and state EMA's anyways for preparation.

I mean I sat down yesterdsay morning and saw the three local TV stations here in the South Bend IN market display the 10% hatched tornado risk for the area, and not one MET from either station mentioned once the possibility of a strong tornado. That even included the local NWS office in my area (IWX). That just goes to show that the local meteorlogist may not even role with the SPC's narrative.
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Historically I think on average Moderate Risk days have done just as good if not better than High Risk days.
 
AJS said:
I do wonder what he’s seeing that made him say that.
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I don't think anything really specific honestly, models have been showing atleast 1 or 2 discreet or semi discreet storms that take advantage of the enviroment. You'll more and likely have a couple of supercell's that are long track supercells that'll go on to produce some tornadoes and a bowed line that produces spin ups embedded in the line and lots of damaging wind. Pretty robust event today.
 
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