Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[AJS]

View attachment 41719
lil close up of 0z hrrr, o u c h not what we wanted to see

One of those tracks could take a cell right through Bowing Green.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Pulling all sorts of nasty soundings for tomorrow from Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. The lack of tornadic analogs is suspicious, though.

 

[AJS]

Pulling all sorts of nasty soundings for tomorrow from Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. The lack of tornadic analogs is suspicious, though.


View attachment 41720View attachment 41722View attachment 41721View attachment 41723

Please tell me that’s not the Greensburg cell analog on the top sounding.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Please tell me that’s not the Greensburg cell analog on the top sounding.

I wish I could.....thats not good at all.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Please tell me that’s not the Greensburg cell analog on the top sounding.

It's not

 

[Ozonelayer]

It's not

Thank god I'm mistaken.

 

[AJS]

It's not

Oh thank goodness I thought it was. For some reason I thought Greensburg occurred on the 3rd.

 

[Muwx]

Oh thank goodness I thought it was. For some reason I thought Greensburg occurred on the 3rd.

Which still wouldn’t be that sounding analog.

 

[AJS]

Which still wouldn’t be that sounding analog.

I know, my brain went off on a wander.
Regardless, some of those soundings do look pretty insane.

 

[andyhb]

00z NAM 3 km is a very serious event tomorrow with multiple long tracked supercells in a very dangerous environment across the Lower OV and Mid South.

 

[chasestormz39]

00z NAM 3 km is a very serious event tomorrow with multiple long tracked supercells in a very dangerous environment across the Lower OV and Mid South.

Do you see those being mostly very large hail producers or tornado producers?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Do you see those being mostly very large hail producers or tornado producers?

Both be honest what I see ….

 

[Brice W]

Do you see those being mostly very large hail producers or tornado producers?

Given that environment. Those carry EF3+ potential tornado producing supercells. That’s a big uptick and honestly a violent run of the HRRR.

 

[AJS]

Given that environment. Those carry EF3+ tornado producing supercells. That’s a big uptick and honestly a violent run of the HRRR.

A notable uptick in intensity from a few hours ago for sure.

 

[Brice W]

A notable uptick in intensity from a few hours ago for sure.

Have to see what’s in store for tmr morning. If they keep flipping back and forth I’d be less skeptical on this run, however, if it’s like this right before the event, you are going to have long track supercells with intense tornado potential.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

00z NAM 3 km is a very serious event tomorrow with multiple long tracked supercells in a very dangerous environment across the Lower OV and Mid South.

You weren't kidding. Wow. How rare is it for super celluar activity to kick off at 9am like this is showing?

 

[US_Highway15]

While this storm was a pain in the rear end to track here in northern IL/IN, this is truly one of the most unique storm systems I believe in quite some time, due to how far this line of storms extends. Truly incredible indeed.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Have to see what’s in store for tmr morning. If they keep flipping back and forth I’d be less skeptical on this run, however, if it’s like this right before the event, you are going to have long track supercells with intense tornado potential.

Yeah and the cams are just now getting in it’s best range for tomorrow evening event

 

[Jbop]

You weren't kidding. Wow. How rare is it for super celluar activity to kick off at 9am like this is showing?

View attachment 41724

Could this possibly pull the trigger for a high-risk day?