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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

NWS in Chicago/Romeoville is confident in the tornado risk increasing at 8 PM CDT approaches:

NEW AFD:

"MESOSCALE...
Issued at 520 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Quick update...

Environment across northern IL remains not terribly favorable
for tornadoes with high LCLs and fairly marginal low level
shear. It still appears that low level jet will quickly ramp up
between 23z-01z, which should result in a significant increase
of low level shear. By 01z, large, looping 0-1km hodographs
become quite favorable for stronger low level mesocyclones and
tornadoes. We should also see a diurnal decrease in the T/Td
spreads with gradually lowering LCL heights. So expecting the
environment to become increasingly favorable for tornadoes early
this evening.

Eastward progression of storms has been slower than earlier CAM
guidnace had suggested. Originally, it was looking like the
storms would be pushing into northwest Indiana as the
environment was improving for tornadoes, however with the slower
eastward progression of storms, a larger portion of our CWA
could have supercells in the area as the environment grows more
favorable for tornadoes. At this time, it looks like roughly
along and south/east of I-55 could see the greatest tornado
risk.

Any supercell that does develop could produce very large hail,
potentially up to 3 inches in diameter as well as locally
damaging winds across the entire area."
 
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