Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[CheeselandSkies]

I'll do the honors since a big chunk of Thursday's risk area is in my back yard.

There are some pattern recognition fundamentals that suggest Thursday has a better chance of verifying a tornado event than 4/28 did. Namely a pronounced negative tilt and a potent LLJ with a more southerly component. Consistency on the general pattern between the GFS, Euro and now NAM has been relatively good. Still some details yet to iron out mainly with timing, which held SPC back from pulling the trigger on a 30% zone.

 

[Atlantic]

Are so back? Well we will have to wait and see. My severe weather season started early (I am in central Virginia), as I got a severe T-storm on May 8th and my season in my area usually is June-August.

Anyway, what are we looking at as of now?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Just the basics folks, this is what we look for:

 

[US_Highway15]

I'll do the honors since a big chunk of Thursday's risk area is in my back yard.

There are some pattern recognition fundamentals that suggest Thursday has a better chance of verifying a tornado event than 4/28 did. Namely a pronounced negative tilt and a potent LLJ with a more southerly component. Consistency on the general pattern between the GFS, Euro and now NAM has been relatively good. Still some details yet to iron out mainly with timing, which held SPC back from pulling the trigger on a 30% zone.

I think I read in the discussion for Thursday that another reason they held back is due to this being another classic CIN (capping inversion) setup, which I believe the GFS/GEFS runs yesterday kept the environment capped.

 

[US_Highway15]

Depending on how things shape out, I might just backyard chase this since this is literally in my home area.

 

[Atlantic]

Just the basics folks, this is what we look for:

View attachment 41311

A trough coming down right?

A trough setup is H L H (High pressure, Low pressure, High pressure)

The way I understand it, the base of the trough is where the highest jet winds are, right?

 

[Tanner]

This troff seems more favorable than the one that included the moderate risk Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency on April 28, despite some concerns about forcing, which are valid, and the cap, which is also valid. It doesn't seem to flatten out near the start of its occlusion as much, which on the surface seems more favorable for shear vectors that would lead to less of linear convection regime.

 

[slenker]

Man, the look on the 12z Euro for this trough is nasty. It's very progressive though, so the forcing may be strong.

 

[Brice W]

Are so back? Well we will have to wait and see. My severe weather season started early (I am in central Virginia), as I got a severe T-storm on May 8th and my season in my area usually is June-August.

Anyway, what are we looking at as of now?

I’m in central VA too! We may have discussed this in another thread. Usually that’s when the storms are peak cause of summer. May 8th I had a lighting bolt hit literally right outside my window next to me. It shook everything and sent a shiver down my spine that I won’t forget.

But looking at this setup from a broad standpoint. Based on the GFS. It has everything you need to have a good threat of severe storms.

 

[Atlantic]

I’m in central VA too! We may have discussed this in another thread. Usually that’s when the storms are peak cause of summer. May 8th I had a lighting bolt hit literally right outside my window next to me. It shook everything and sent a shiver down my spine that I won’t forget.

But looking at this setup from a broad standpoint. Based on the GFS. It has everything you need to have a good threat of severe storms.

I believe we have. I live near Lynchburg.

 

[Kds86z]

I’m in central VA too! We may have discussed this in another thread. Usually that’s when the storms are peak cause of summer. May 8th I had a lighting bolt hit literally right outside my window next to me. It shook everything and sent a shiver down my spine that I won’t forget.

But looking at this setup from a broad standpoint. Based on the GFS. It has everything you need to have a good threat of severe storms.

Wow @Brice W glad you’re ok

 

[Atlantic]

I’m in central VA too! We may have discussed this in another thread. Usually that’s when the storms are peak cause of summer. May 8th I had a lighting bolt hit literally right outside my window next to me. It shook everything and sent a shiver down my spine that I won’t forget.

But looking at this setup from a broad standpoint. Based on the GFS. It has everything you need to have a good threat of severe storms.

I have never had that happen to me! I have heard thunder so loud that I have had to cover my ears before but not what you are describing.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Man, the look on the 12z Euro for this trough is nasty. It's very progressive though, so the forcing may be strong.

We have strong forcing but also a strong cap which can be a volatile combo.

 

[andyhb]

All I'll say on this for now regarding Friday: beware of zonal flow events in the Lower Ohio Valley and SE, because that's exactly what it looks like right now.

 

[slenker]

All I'll say on this for now regarding Friday: beware of zonal flow events in the Lower Ohio Valley and SE, because that's exactly what it looks like right now.

I recall late May of last year being very active with this sort of setup, which brought us a whole lot of EF3s - what other notable examples of this produced multiple strong tornadoes?

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

All I'll say on this for now regarding Friday: beware of zonal flow events in the Lower Ohio Valley and SE, because that's exactly what it looks like right now.

Is that related to the rapid acceleration of upper air winds East to West the models are showing mid day Thursday?

 

[Aaron Rider]

I have never had that happen to me! I have heard thunder so loud that I have had to cover my ears before but not what you are describing.

Happened to me once. During an otherwise standard thunderstorm, a bolt hit so close and so loud that it caused me to hit the floor lol

Anyway, what areas are we thinking will be most under the gun with this threat?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Happened to me once. During an otherwise standard thunderstorm, a bolt hit so close and so loud that it caused me to hit the floor lol

Anyway, what areas are we thinking will be most under the gun with this threat?

Thursday Midwest mainly , frdiay lower Ohio valley to the Midsouth region as now

 

[andyhb]

I recall late May of last year being very active with this sort of setup, which brought us a whole lot of EF3s - what other notable examples of this produced multiple strong tornadoes?

The Nashville event in March 2020, 5/18/1995, etc.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

All I'll say on this for now regarding Friday: beware of zonal flow events in the Lower Ohio Valley and SE, because that's exactly what it looks like right now.

Yeah going over latest data on models , I won’t be surprised see this go upgrade to A 30 percent chance over the north portion of risk area , especially wind driven hazard ….