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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

In general tornadogenesis has occurred today where the RFD has been able to surge forward, resulting in strong but often shorter lived tornadoes.

I think this will be less and less the case, both as low level wind shear improves with the LLJ - which is really starting to just kick in now. And also as convective coverage increases with the approaching shortwave there is more material to induce these storm scale interactions. So I think a window for 1-3 long tracked intense tornadoes exist on top of these shorter lived intense ones.
 
Does anyone think (this is most likely premature) that this could get anywhere near a super outbreak in the end? Is the ceiling that high?
Not really, and it doesn't need to be. We have double digit tornado warnings, three PDS warnings, and a TORE at this point. That's a solid outbreak. But trust me, if this was anything close to a super outbreak, you wouldn't be needing to ask.
 
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