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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

slenker said:
Unless I’m misunderstanding what I’m seeing in these pictures, I disagree. Looks like low end EF2 max to me. EF3 seems like it would be more significant damage to structures than that.
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Looking at it again, definitely correct. Think it's EF2 damage, because of the roofs being torn off the brick buildings, unless those were already torn off. If they were already torn off before the tornado, then EF1.
 
Reminder that the LLJ has not strengthened yet. Profiles now favor large hail, and tornadoes where storm scale factors (such as merger induced RFD surges, or nudgers) allow. That is exactly what has happened. The main LLJ segment is currently just behind the main storms, will begin strengthening now, and move East over the next few hours. In fact, the VAD from Paducah has increased the 0-1km SRH from 180m2/s2 to 260m2/s2 in the last 15-20 minutes. So long story short, do not dismiss the rest of the evening based on the expected hail dominant mode now.
 
UK_EF4 said:
Reminder that the LLJ has not strengthened yet. Profiles now favor large hail, and tornadoes where storm scale factors (such as merger induced RFD surges, or nudgers) allow. That is exactly what has happened. The main LLJ segment is currently just behind the main storms, will begin strengthening now, and move East over the next few hours. In fact, the VAD from Paducah has increased the 0-1km SRH from 180m2/s2 to 260m2/s2 in the last 15-20 minutes. So long story short, do not dismiss the rest of the evening based on the expected hail dominant mode now.
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But.... the VAD from Paducah is contaminated because the supercell is right over it, so I wouldn't trust it too much. :)

Looking at the models, the LLJ still shows winds coming out of the SW over the next several hours which is not the most conducive for tornadoes today.
 
zath said:
But.... the VAD from Paducah is contaminated because the supercell is right over it, so I wouldn't trust it too much. :)

Looking at the models, the LLJ still shows winds coming out of the SW over the next several hours which is not the most conducive for tornadoes today.
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It's possible, though I still think it's reflecting the increase in LLJ - similar increases occurring on KVWX radar to the north.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I'm gonna say it, I'm surprised (but can in a way understand) that NWS Paducah has kept the Tornado Warning in place since the storm has turned more outflow for the time being.View attachment 41887
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Ever since they lost the top guy there a couple months ago, it's been a way different office. Went from very conservative to very progressive in terms of wording and warning issuance.
 
UK_EF4 said:
It's possible, though I still think it's reflecting the increase in LLJ - similar increases occurring on KVWX radar to the north.
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For sure! My concern though is it seems like mostly a speed shear that is increasing, rather than directional shear. The hodographs still seem fairly linear as opposed to wide sickle-shaped. That is what mostly drives my thought that long-lived/strong tornadoes - while still possible - is lower compared to shorter-lived tornadoes.
 
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