Severe Threat - Feb 27-28th, 2024

[MattPetrulli]

Gonna go ahead and make a thread early. Both Euro and GFS depict some type of severe event during these days. CIPS analogs are also lighting up.

 

[KevinH]

Gonna go ahead and make a thread early. Both Euro and GFS depict some type of severe event during these days. CIPS analogs are also lighting up.
View attachment 23963

lol

This should be interesting…

 

[Clancy]

Very large D6 and D7 areas now.

 

[KevinH]

Very large D6 and D7 areas now.
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View attachment 23966

I wonder how wide risk areas like these have “performed” in the past? Not sure if them highlighting something this far out is a good thing :/

 

[Clancy]

I wonder how wide risk areas like these have “performed” in the past? Not sure if them highlighting something this far out is a good thing :/

They seem fairly confident and starting out with 15% probs is a good call. Granted, I'm not sure I can remember them putting out an areal delineation as large as the D7 since they introduced the tiered mid-range graphics.

 

[KevinH]

They seem fairly confident and starting out with 15% probs is a good call. Granted, I'm not sure I can remember them putting out an areal delineation as large as the D7 since they introduced the tiered mid-range graphics.

They did in May 2019 didn’t they?

 

[Clancy]

They did in May 2019 didn’t they?

I'd have to go check but probably so.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Does this remind anybody a little bit of April 28th 2014 just by looks of is it just me lol?

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

Does this remind anybody a little bit of April 28th 2014 just by looks of is it just me lol?

I chased that day solo. That was a ride and a chase of a life time.

 

[JBishopwx]

April 28, 2014: Ef-4 just 15 miles down the road from me in Louisville.

 

[Gail]

April 28, 2014: Ef-4 just 15 miles down the road from me in Louisville.

We had pictures, scraps of paper (receipts), and shingles in our yard. It smelled like we were in the middle of a pine forest clearing outside. I live about a hour north of Louisville in north Lowndes County.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wouldn't be surprised for a 30% in day 4-8 if we lock down more consistency

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Wouldn't be surprised for a 30% in day 4-8 if we lock down more consistency

Yeah. We not far away I say …. I say by Saturday models stay course we start see 30 percent pop up

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lol the 12z GFS is.. different lol

 

[Clancy]

Maaan, even though general consensus on a trough has been solid, the actual consistency of its depiction has been absolutely garbage. CIPS and CSU probs remain as robust as ever.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Clancy]

A thread on this setup's current caveats on modelling.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

A thread on this setup's current caveats on modelling.

These wobbles in trends are like deja vu. Big look at long range then you get closer it wobbles to looking unfavorable and then boom you about a day or two closer and it looks crazy lol. Then the mesoscale details decide the event..

 

[JPWX]

This is why you look at temperature differences and the overall pattern instead of focusing solely on forecast models. Upper 70s/low to mid 80s in February ALWAYS is trouble

 

[Kim30]

Does this remind anybody a little bit of April 28th 2014 just by looks of is it just me lol?

Yes, it does. The Limestone Co. AL EF3 missed me by 1/4 mile.