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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Erin

Severe Threat August 7-9

Tomorrow has gotten a bit more interesting locally. Still not expecting much more than outflow-dominant clusters/lines, but the 1730Z did add a 2% tornado contour in the Midwest. The main problem with this setup is the best forcing and bulk shear lagging behind the cold front, which is fairly common in the summer.
 
Kds86z said:
Click to expand...


Already over an hour later and not much on the radar. There was recently a funnel cloud report in Swift County, MN with what looks like nothing more than a shower (although to be fair, it's in such a radar hole you can't see what's going on below 10,000').
 
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well supposed to be a map for upper midwest but its not show up but some of them showing a cap an eml and also fat instability
 
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“
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING FROM THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN, AS A SEASONABLY
DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
IMPINGE UPON A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD
EVOLVE INITIALLY WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH A
THREAT OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QUICK
TRANSITION TO A CLUSTER OR LINEAR MODE. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ANAFRONTAL WITH TIME”
 
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