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Severe WX Severe threat 5/20-17 (1 Viewer)


Xenesthis

Member
Messages
249
Location
McMinnville TN
Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...New Orleans, LA...
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 201254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX TO THE
MIDWEST AND WV/VA/NC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a cold
front from south-central Texas into the lower-to-middle Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys, especially this afternoon and evening. Isolated
damaging wind gusts and hail will be the most common threats.

...Synopsis...
Within a semi-amplified pattern, a closed trough centered over the
central High Plains early this morning will continue to shift
northeastward toward the Upper Midwest through tonight. A cold front
will move east-southeastward across the Midwest, lower and middle MS
River Valley, Ark-La-Tex and parts of east/south TX, with much of
today's thunderstorms and severe risk focused ahead of this front.

...Lower/mid Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley...
An extensive corridor of linearly organized pre-cold frontal
convection extends early this morning from southern IL southwestward
into AR/western TN toward the Ark-La-Tex region and other parts of
east TX. Related convective outflows will continue to focus
additional storm development to the east/southeast of these
early-day storms, with other line/outflow-preceding convection
likely to increase especially this afternoon within a moist and
weakly capped air mass from portions of LA/MS/AL northward into the
OH Valley.

The strongest forcing for ascent/vertical shear related to the
upstream synopsis-described trough will tend to lag the
aforementioned outflow and downstream corridor of peak diurnal
destabilization. Even so, steepening low-level lapse rates and
moderate buoyancy combined with gradually strengthening of
deep-layer southwesterly winds will support relatively
well-organized linear segments capable of mostly wind damage.
Somewhat stronger deep-layer/low-level shear will exist across the
OH River Valley vicinity including IN/western OH, particularly near
a northward-shifting warm front. This may be conducive for a few
supercells ahead of the upstream linear convection/outflows with
somewhat greater possibilities for hail and a tornado or two aside
from what should be a more prevalent damaging wind risk.

Farther west, a few lower-topped thunderstorms may develop near the
east/southeastward-moving front across the middle/upper MS River
vicinity and Ozarks by late afternoon. However, given pre-frontal
trajectories emanating from convectively overturned air, any severe
potential near the front is currently expected to remain limited
later this afternoon into evening.

...South-central Texas...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have been common through
the overnight/early morning hours across parts of the Concho
Valley/Edwards Plateau vicinity in areas along/north of a
southward-sagging cold front. These storms may continue
east-southeastward today, while additional storm development occurs
near the front this afternoon/early evening within a strongly
unstable environment. For additional short-term information, see
Mesoscale Discussion 798. Given ample instability, strong
mid/high-level westerlies atop the frontal zone will support the
possibility of supercells and organized clusters capable of mainly
large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts.

...Parts of VA/NC...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms could develop this afternoon in
vicinity of a backdoor cold front, where a moderately unstable
environment could yield pulse-type thunderstorms capable of locally
damaging winds.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/20/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1530Z (10:30AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
 

WesL

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Fayetteville, AR
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Well just had one of those special situations at TW HQ. I was in the kitchen and the lights started blinking and then I heard a loud sound from my bedroom followed by like 3 doors slamming. Came down the hall to my bedroom and the door had slammed so hard that the door went past the door jam that normally stops it and was wedged shut. Went outside around the house and found the patio door wide open and rain pouring in. Little pieces of limbs all over my room as well No damage. Was able to take the bedroom door off the hinges and pull it back in. Going to to have to make sure I close that outside door better. Would have been some water damage had I not been home.
 

Mike S

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1,194
Location
Huntsville, Al
HUN's statement on the Saturday storms

The maximum wind speeds from this event was estimated
from the various photos and documented reports of uprooted hardwood trees
and snapped utility/power poles. That magnitude damage would be consistent
with straight line winds of approximately 80 to 90 mph. Given the totality
of the evidence, this event will be classified as a straight-line/damaging
wind episode.
 

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