Severe WX Severe Threat - 3/7

[Bama Ravens]

From BMX:

The lack of rain and strong warm advection ahead of the cold front will push temperatures
through the 60s and into the 70s by early afternoon. Surface
dewpoints will also rise throughout the day with lower 60s spreading
into west Alabama by early afternoon. Strong wind fields from the
surface through 850mb will result in good speed and directional
shear in the lowest 3 kilometers. Forecast soundings across west
Alabama this afternoon indicate favorable curvature in the hodograph
to support the possibility of tornadoes, with 0-3km SRH values 300-
400 m2/s2. The best instability and CAPE will be across
Mississippi, but most of the hi-res models forecast CAPE values
across west-central Alabama in the 500-700 j/kg range this
afternoon. The Storm Prediction has upgraded the marginal risk area
across west Alabama to a slight risk.

 

[Bama Ravens]

It seems like lately, BMX will talk about there being very little threat in the days leading up to the event, then suddenly ramp up the threat more the day of. It's just sort of weird.

 

[Kory]

To be honest, moisture recovery looks better than forecast by the models. 60 degree dew points well past I-20 in MS and that will be spreading east. Still think this is a largely a damaging wind threat....

 

[Kory]

And that is something we need to watch for future events as well. With the record setting warm Gulf of Mexico, we'll likely see moisture overperform for future systems....

 

[Bama Ravens]

I could be wrong, but it seems like DPs in north-central AL would have a hard time recovering given that they won't have a lot of time. My dew point where I live just north of Birmingham is only 57 and the temp is 59.

Bill Murray also seems to think that it will be hard for the better few points to work in here

 

[Bama Ravens]

And now the slight risk has been trimmed back, almost totally out of Alabama.

 

[WesL]

This is a good thing because we are lacking some radar power in Alabama and Mississippi


==================
NOUS64 KJAN 021748
FTMGWX
Message Date: Mar 07 2017 06:26:11
All users of KGWX radar: The KGWX radar still remains inoperational and CBM tech
s are awaiting arrival of parts,that will hopefully arrive later today, in order
to fix the radar. We will update the progress of the situation later today when
more is known. KJAN staff.
==================

NOUS64 KHUN 071531
FTMHTX
Message Date: Mar 07 2017 15:32:43
KHTX is now operational and running at about 60% of optimal power. Technicians w
ill finalize repair work at the site on Wednesday to bring the system back to op
timal settings.
==================

 

[MichelleH]

Well, it doesn't feel stormy this morning! Actually pretty chilly out there!

 

[Kory]

Couple spots in that line headed toward Bham that are weakly rotating.

 

[Lori]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Northern Shelby Co (AL) and Southeastern Jefferson till 3:45

 

[Lori]

It's getting dark up in here (Pelham) but I think the worse of it is north of me....I think

 

[Lori]

And the Severe for Jefferson and Shelby has already been cancelled, I feel bad for the kids getting out of school and especially dropped off from buses, the rain is very heavy!