Severe WX Severe Threat 12-15 March 2021 (1 Viewer)

Tennie

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Yeah i was just going to point that out. But you never know. It could be a ugly day or it could be a bust

The ingredients are currently in place. All we can do right now is try to guess what recipe the atmosphere will use them for (a bust day, tornado outbreak, a linear windstorm, a bunch of hail-makers, etc.), but ultimately, that decision is the atmosphere's and the atmosphere's alone.
 

Tennie

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Tornado Watch now in effect for the Texas Panhandle until 7:00 PM:


SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 19
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Sat Mar 13 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
East-central New Mexico
Northwest Texas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Initial discrete supercells should develop east-northeast
from the east-central New Mexico and northwest Texas border region.
Tornado and large hail will be the primary hazards.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Amarillo TX to 65
miles south southeast of Cannon Afb NM. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 21045.

...Grams

50/30 tornado probabilities.
 

speedbump305

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Tornado Watch now in effect for the Texas Panhandle until 7:00 PM:




50/30 tornado probabilities.
It seems like the ingredients are getting more and more intense every hour. Guys i know i’m saying this a lot. But this really could get bad if it really does get organized
 

warneagle

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This isn't the watch for the MDT area. They just put out a MD for that area.

1615665490823.png
 

speedbump305

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This setup is like Eerie similar to The 2013 Moore Outbreak. A moderate risk being issued without a PDS watch. and yet an EF5 formed without a PDS watch, we definitely know strong/a few intense tornadoes are likely, but this just reminds me of that outbreak. Plus the risk for tornadoes was lower in the Moore outbreak, at 10 percent SIG, and this is 15 percent SIG, obvi the cape values were different probably, but the risk outlook just reminds me of ir
 
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Activity is already going upscale and/or quasi-linear. Clearly, the mid-level flow is largely parallel to the boundary, so mergers are already taking place on NEXRAD. Some bowing is also evident with the relatively “discrete” activity thus far. The best parameters for SIGTOR are highly localised and ephemeral at best.
 

Tennie

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TOR out for the cell near Channing, TX:

639
WFUS54 KAMA 132042
TORAMA
TXC111-205-341-132115-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0001.210313T2042Z-210313T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
242 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Dallam County in the Panhandle of Texas...
Northwestern Moore County in the Panhandle of Texas...
Eastern Hartley County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 315 PM CST.

* At 241 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Hartley, or 16 miles southeast of Dalhart, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Hartley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 10221 3608 10216 3606 10216 3605 10214
3585 10205 3563 10245 3585 10271
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 234DEG 49KT 3585 10240

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

LFM
 

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