The ingredients are currently in place. All we can do right now is try to guess what recipe the atmosphere will use them for (a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency day, tornado outbreak, a linear windstorm, a bunch of hail-makers, etc.), but ultimately, that decision is the atmosphere's and the atmosphere's alone.
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Severe WX Severe Threat 12-15 March 2021
- Thread starter warneagle
- Start date
The ingredients are currently in place. All we can do right now is try to guess what recipe the atmosphere will use them for (a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency day, tornado outbreak, a linear windstorm, a bunch of hail-makers, etc.), but ultimately, that decision is the atmosphere's and the atmosphere's alone.
Casuarina Head
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NAM and HRRR tend to show more conducive thermodynamic/mesoscale profiles than actually turn out to be the case most of the time.
Tornado Watch now in effect for the Texas Panhandle until 7:00 PM:
50/30 tornado probabilities.
Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
50/30 tornado probabilities.
Austin Dawg
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Sooo many chasers out there. Hope we don't have any accidents. Monitoring a Discord chat of chasers.
speedbump305
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It seems like the ingredients are getting more and more intense every hour. Guys i know i’m saying this a lot. But this really could get bad if it really does get organized
Brice Wood
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Line of cells developing
Brice Wood
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Surprised they didn’t issue a pds tornado watch
Brice Wood
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Don’t know what can prevent them to issue that type of watch
warneagle
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This isn't the watch for the MDT area. They just put out a MD for that area.
Brice Wood
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Okay that makes more sense
Brice Wood
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Severe t-storm warning in the arching storms
warneagle
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That might be our first one to watch.
speedbump305
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This setup is like Eerie similar to The 2013 Moore Outbreak. A moderate risk being issued without a PDS watch. and yet an EF5 formed without a PDS watch, we definitely know strong/a few intense tornadoes are likely, but this just reminds me of that outbreak. Plus the risk for tornadoes was lower in the Moore outbreak, at 10 percent SIG, and this is 15 percent SIG, obvi the cape values were different probably, but the risk outlook just reminds me of ir
warneagle
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I assume they'll issue a PDS for the MDT area when the time comes.
Brice Wood
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Future radar look ugly with those two power house supercells heading south of Amarillo
WhirlingWx
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80/60 probabilities on the new watch (for tornadoes)
Casuarina Head
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Activity is already going upscale and/or quasi-linear. Clearly, the mid-level flow is largely parallel to the boundary, so mergers are already taking place on NEXRAD. Some bowing is also evident with the relatively “discrete” activity thus far. The best parameters for SIGTOR are highly localised and ephemeral at best.