Hurricane Sally

[Taylor Campbell]

Intensity forecast models show a quick spike to cat 1-2 status. I wouldn’t be shocked if we reach major. Intensification looks to occur all the way up to landfall.

 

[Kory]

Intensity forecast models show a quick spike to cat 1-2 status. I wouldn’t be shocked if we reach major. Intensification looks to occur all the way up to landfall.

Yep, i got a lump in my throat looking at the HWRF. These past few seasons have had rapidly intensifying hurricanes til landfall. This might have the same fate. Watch out NOLA...models are inching west.

 

[warneagle]

And unlike Laura this one isn't going to be moving nearly as fast. Hopefully we don't get miniature Harvey type scenario.

 

[akt1985]

We now have Tropical Storm Sally.

 

[Lori]

A lot of flooding forecasted, that tends to cause more deaths. I hope this is taken seriously!

 

[WX_Poser]

Just got woken up (4:30am) by an emergency alert and saw that the track has shifted west and right over me in Mandeville, LA.

 

[Kory]

The next 12 hours will be key as it moves into an area of very low shear. Will the circulation vertically align as it’s currently disjointed? DMIN tonight will probably feature some pretty good intensification IF it aligns today.

Either way, pressure is gradually dropping. It will likely strengthen til landfall.

 

[Kory]

My parents said it was a madhouse at the grocery just now going to pick up some supplies in NOLA.

 

[barcncpt44]

As we recall, Katrina weakened to a CAT 3 at landfall and the center went East of New Orleans. This time Sally likely will go west of New Orleans and that means the worst side with storm surge. This will be a big test for the rebuilt levees and pump system.

 

[Kory]

As we recall, Katrina weakened to a CAT 3 at landfall and the center went East of New Orleans. This time Sally likely will go west of New Orleans and that means the worst side with storm surge. This will be a big test for the rebuilt levees and pump system.

I don't think this storm will be any issue for the levees. It will be heavy rainfall to see if the pumps can keep up (they can only handle 1" of rain the first hour and 0.5" every hour after that).

If I recall, Gustav and Isaac had higher surges than currently forecasted.

 

[warneagle]

That convection is really starting to blow up.

 

[Jetstream]

Well..... hmmmm

 

[Kory]

Center reformation beneath the MLC this morning. It’s about to go to town. Model trends have shifting things East away from NOLA but implicating more of the MS gulf coast and even Mobile.

 

[Jetstream]

Been waiting to see if the low level circulation and mid level would become stacked/matched up. If so, it will strengthen with current atmospheric conditions as they are at moment.

 

[TornadoFan]

If it's going to intensify, it's gonna have to do it quickly.

 

[Jacob]

Center reformation beneath the MLC this morning. It’s about to go to town. Model trends have shifting things East away from NOLA but implicating more of the MS gulf coast and even Mobile.

Yep, radar presentation is looking better and better now that it appears to have relocated under the MLC. Looks like it has caused a nice jog N too, but that could just be wobbling while it is forming.

 

[Kory]

Yep, radar presentation is looking better and better now that it appears to have relocated under the MLC. Looks like it has caused a nice jog N too, but that could just be wobbling while it is forming.

Yeah, can’t really go north right now. Still a big ridge to the north of Sally. 06z euro shows it drifting almost due west to the Mouth of the River and then lifting north into Harrison County MS.

 

[Kory]

7mb drop in pressure in an hour!! Recon shows we have Hurricane Sally.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[WesL]

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally
indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane,
with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09
inches).

A Special Advisory will be issued shortly to update the intensity
forecast for Sally.