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Tropical Storm Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry (1 Viewer)


WesL

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Getting a little busy in the second half of the season....

Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 47.7W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 47.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system
will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the
time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


2061
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Yep, just posted about the favorable CCKW associated with the MJO is now moving into the Atlantic. Things will begin to spin up.

Model consensus recurves this before the U.S., although some of the western outliers have a stronger system getting trapped beneath the ridge building in behind Humberto and thus further west and more threatening to the U.S. I'm not buying that solution as of now...

 

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