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Here we go. The Storm Prediction Center has on Day 4 a 15% risk area that includes Most of Mississippi, Southern Middle Tennessee, NE Louisianna and Western Alabama to Include the Huntsville Area.
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October 20-21, 2019 Severe Weather Event
- Thread starter JayF
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The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued the following statement for Monday's weather:
BOTTOM LINE
A few strong-severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon/evening. The main threats will be locally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado.
OVERVIEW
A strong cold front is expected to push east-southeastward into the region on Monday afternoon. A broken band of showers and a few thunderstorms will precede
the cold front from our forecast area northward, with a more widespread coverage of thunderstorms anticipated to the south/west of our region where the
atmosphere will be more unstable. Nonetheless, sufficient vertical wind shear will present across the TN Valley on Monday afternoon to support a risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms, with this threat greatest across our southwestern counties. Locally damaging winds and brief tornadoes will be the primary threats with the strongest storms.
WEATHER IMPACTS
Thunderstorms
HIGH Confidence High Confidence IMPACTS...
MODERATE Confidence Locally heavy rainfall; lightning.
LOW Confidence Damaging winds; brief tornadoes.
Forecast Details
A band of showers and a few thunderstorms preceding a strong cold front will enter northwest AL Monday afternoon and progress steadily east southeastward,
exiting the southeastern counties during the late evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be possible across much of the region during this event. A few thunderstorms could become strong-severe and may produce locally damaging winds and a brief tornado. At this time, the threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be highest across the southwestern counties of our forecast area.
BOTTOM LINE
A few strong-severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon/evening. The main threats will be locally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado.
OVERVIEW
A strong cold front is expected to push east-southeastward into the region on Monday afternoon. A broken band of showers and a few thunderstorms will precede
the cold front from our forecast area northward, with a more widespread coverage of thunderstorms anticipated to the south/west of our region where the
atmosphere will be more unstable. Nonetheless, sufficient vertical wind shear will present across the TN Valley on Monday afternoon to support a risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms, with this threat greatest across our southwestern counties. Locally damaging winds and brief tornadoes will be the primary threats with the strongest storms.
WEATHER IMPACTS
Thunderstorms
HIGH Confidence High Confidence IMPACTS...
MODERATE Confidence Locally heavy rainfall; lightning.
LOW Confidence Damaging winds; brief tornadoes.
Forecast Details
A band of showers and a few thunderstorms preceding a strong cold front will enter northwest AL Monday afternoon and progress steadily east southeastward,
exiting the southeastern counties during the late evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be possible across much of the region during this event. A few thunderstorms could become strong-severe and may produce locally damaging winds and a brief tornado. At this time, the threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be highest across the southwestern counties of our forecast area.
MichelleH
Member
MichelleH
Member
SPC AC 190727
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley, into portions of the lower Ohio Valley,
posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.
...Discussion...
Rather amplified large-scale troughing over the interior U.S. may
take on more of a negative tilt while progressing across the
Mississippi Valley during this period. Smaller-scale embedded
perturbations/developments remain more unclear due to sizable spread
within model output, but it does appear that there may be
substantive further deepening of the primary associated
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone. The center of this feature is
expected to migrate from the mid Missouri Valley into the Upper
Midwest Monday through Monday night, with an occluding surface front
surging east of the Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians.
Lapse rates within much of the moistening portion of the warm sector
of the cyclone are generally forecast to remain weak, which may
limit CAPE to around 500-1000 J/kg within a pre-frontal plume across
the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley.
South to southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow may include 50-70
kt at 850 mb, and 70-90+ kt at 500 mb, but there may be a tendency
for the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields to shift north of the
destabilizing warm sector early in the period.
Still, there appears potential for the environment to become
conducive to the development of a combination of one or more broken
lines of storms and discrete supercells, particularly during the day
Monday across Louisiana, Mississippi, and adjacent portions of
southeast Arkansas and western Alabama, into portions of middle
Tennessee, which probably will be accompanied by a risk for damaging
winds and a few tornadoes.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley, into portions of the lower Ohio Valley,
posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.
...Discussion...
Rather amplified large-scale troughing over the interior U.S. may
take on more of a negative tilt while progressing across the
Mississippi Valley during this period. Smaller-scale embedded
perturbations/developments remain more unclear due to sizable spread
within model output, but it does appear that there may be
substantive further deepening of the primary associated
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone. The center of this feature is
expected to migrate from the mid Missouri Valley into the Upper
Midwest Monday through Monday night, with an occluding surface front
surging east of the Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians.
Lapse rates within much of the moistening portion of the warm sector
of the cyclone are generally forecast to remain weak, which may
limit CAPE to around 500-1000 J/kg within a pre-frontal plume across
the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley.
South to southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow may include 50-70
kt at 850 mb, and 70-90+ kt at 500 mb, but there may be a tendency
for the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields to shift north of the
destabilizing warm sector early in the period.
Still, there appears potential for the environment to become
conducive to the development of a combination of one or more broken
lines of storms and discrete supercells, particularly during the day
Monday across Louisiana, Mississippi, and adjacent portions of
southeast Arkansas and western Alabama, into portions of middle
Tennessee, which probably will be accompanied by a risk for damaging
winds and a few tornadoes.
MichelleH
Member
Haven't seen one of these in a while...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Far northwest Louisiana
Far southeast Oklahoma
North-central and northeast Texas
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 700 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...Multiple discrete supercells are expected to persist this
evening with a primary initial risk of very large hail. Tornado
threat should increase into late evening. A second round of more
widespread thunderstorms will form across north-central Texas
towards midnight with a risk of all severe hazards continuing into
the overnight.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles north northwest of
Stephenville TX to 50 miles east southeast of Texarkana AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Far northwest Louisiana
Far southeast Oklahoma
North-central and northeast Texas
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 700 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...Multiple discrete supercells are expected to persist this
evening with a primary initial risk of very large hail. Tornado
threat should increase into late evening. A second round of more
widespread thunderstorms will form across north-central Texas
towards midnight with a risk of all severe hazards continuing into
the overnight.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles north northwest of
Stephenville TX to 50 miles east southeast of Texarkana AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
- Moderator
- #6
Tornado on the ground near Dallas, TX.
warneagle
Member
That’s moving through a highly populated area too.
bwalk
Member
Significant debris ball with Dallas storm.
akt1985
Member
Those at AT&T Stadium need to be weather aware as there is a game going on right now between the Cowboys and Eagles.
warneagle
Member
Warning is probably coming for the supercell to the south too.
warneagle
Member
Serious damage in the Dallas area.
TornadoFan
Member
New tornado with the northern storm near Rowlett.
- Admin
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Already having some fun up here in Arkansas
warneagle
Member
Two tornado warnings north of Memphis.
amanda90
Member
Super fun being woken up by sirens this morning! /s
I was lucky that the rotation in my polygon went just north of my house. Thankfully, there wasn't too much to the storm at all. The gusts picked up and dropped a deluge of rain, but the worst of it lasted less than five minutes. Doesn't look like there's any major damage to the Memphis metro - just some power outages.
I was lucky that the rotation in my polygon went just north of my house. Thankfully, there wasn't too much to the storm at all. The gusts picked up and dropped a deluge of rain, but the worst of it lasted less than five minutes. Doesn't look like there's any major damage to the Memphis metro - just some power outages.
bwalk
Member
Dallas Fire Station #41 in the tornado path (10/20/19). Before/After. [photo credit unknown]
Bama Ravens
Member
Slight risk has been trimmed south.
- Admin
- #18
Any word on the rating of the Dallas Tor?
TornadoFan
Member
Dallas tornado rated as an EF-3 with 140 mph winds.
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Some additional damage from the early morning storms in Arkansas...
From Shelia O'Connor's page..
"A LOT of damage at Tyronza Elementary School. An EF-1 tornado came through the city of Tyronza, AR early this morning. This isn't the only damage. Thank you to Payton Weathers for sharing these photos. I'm told there will be no school tomorrow and a decision will be made tomorrow about the rest of the week. "
From Shelia O'Connor's page..
"A LOT of damage at Tyronza Elementary School. An EF-1 tornado came through the city of Tyronza, AR early this morning. This isn't the only damage. Thank you to Payton Weathers for sharing these photos. I'm told there will be no school tomorrow and a decision will be made tomorrow about the rest of the week. "
