KevinH
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- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
And now we wait for the MDs and WWs
Looks like they kept the ENH
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST MON NOV 20 2023
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...
..SUMMARY
TORNADOES (SOME STRONG), DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS, AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
PARTS OF LOUISIANA, THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE DELTA REGION INTO
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
...EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MID MS VALLEY, WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK
THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX AND TOWARDS
THE ARKLAMISS BY THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT/MIX NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS EAST TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE LOW WILL
ALSO SWEEP EASTWARD OVER THESE REGIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ONGOING IN EARNEST THIS MORNING ACROSS
EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH AT LEAST LOW 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR EAST TX INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
LA/MS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BOTH AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EMANATE FROM BANDS OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL
WARM-ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO EAST TX.
RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60+ KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. AROUND 500-1250 J/KG OF
MLCAPE SHOULD ALSO BE PRESENT WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING OF THE
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO LA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL MAY BE A CONCERN WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
CAN BE SUSTAINED. BUT, THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST
TX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35-40 KT. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG/NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH
AMPLE CURVATURE NOTED IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER FROM VARIOUS NAM/RAP
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ENHANCED RISK,
WHICH STILL SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE BEST CORRIDOR OF STRONG TORNADO
POTENTIAL AND SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CELL MERGERS AND SOME UPSCALE GROWTH SEEMS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LINE-EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD STILL POSE A THREAT FOR QLCS TORNADOES AS ONE OR
MORE CLUSTERS/LINES ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS MS AND WESTERN AL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
Looks like they kept the ENH
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST MON NOV 20 2023
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...
..SUMMARY
TORNADOES (SOME STRONG), DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS, AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
PARTS OF LOUISIANA, THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE DELTA REGION INTO
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
...EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MID MS VALLEY, WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK
THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX AND TOWARDS
THE ARKLAMISS BY THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT/MIX NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS EAST TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE LOW WILL
ALSO SWEEP EASTWARD OVER THESE REGIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ONGOING IN EARNEST THIS MORNING ACROSS
EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH AT LEAST LOW 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR EAST TX INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
LA/MS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BOTH AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EMANATE FROM BANDS OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL
WARM-ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO EAST TX.
RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60+ KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. AROUND 500-1250 J/KG OF
MLCAPE SHOULD ALSO BE PRESENT WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING OF THE
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO LA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL MAY BE A CONCERN WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
CAN BE SUSTAINED. BUT, THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST
TX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 35-40 KT. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG/NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH
AMPLE CURVATURE NOTED IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER FROM VARIOUS NAM/RAP
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ENHANCED RISK,
WHICH STILL SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE BEST CORRIDOR OF STRONG TORNADO
POTENTIAL AND SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CELL MERGERS AND SOME UPSCALE GROWTH SEEMS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LINE-EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD STILL POSE A THREAT FOR QLCS TORNADOES AS ONE OR
MORE CLUSTERS/LINES ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS MS AND WESTERN AL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
