November 19-21st severe threat

[Clancy]

HRRR seems to have a tendency to overdo convection (and UH) in early-day runs and then gradually decrease in intensity through the day. 12Z run so far has a bit less UH than 06Z and 00Z.

 

[Weatherphreak]

I’m just excited to get an inch or more of rain. This will be the first time that’s happened for a lot of people since August.

 

[KevinH]

HRRR seems to have a tendency to overdo convection (and UH) in early-day runs and then gradually decrease in intensity through the day. 12Z run so far has a bit less UH than 06Z and 00Z.
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Kind of surprised to see NC/SC with UH tracks.

Not surprised about the “Oklahoma of the South” though (MS/AL).

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Anybody going chasing today? I looked and saw reed timmer was sticking around Vicksburg MS into portions of north Louisiana. Brad Arnold hasn't posted where he's at, checked his twitter.

 

[KevinH]

Anybody going chasing today? I looked and saw reed timmer was sticking around Vicksburg MS into portions of north Louisiana. Brad Arnold hasn't posted where he's at, checked his twitter.

I’ll be chasing on my iPad…. From HOME.

Time to turn on account notifications for the NWSSPC.

 

[JPWX]

Look at where the highest CAPE values are located in North MS on the 12z HRRR and latest RRFS run. Right over Me and Monroe County.

 

[JBishopwx]

Anybody going chasing today? I looked and saw reed timmer was sticking around Vicksburg MS into portions of north Louisiana. Brad Arnold hasn't posted where he's at, checked his twitter.

We (NMSCAS) have a guy heading to Jena and working his way towards Natchez. If I have time, I'll post a link when he goes live.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Brad Arnold says he wouldn't be surprised for a moderate in the next update.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Brad Arnold starting his live stream at 1pm.

https://x.com/BradArnoldWX/status/1726616723980493082?s=20

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow, with this setup I suspect it’ll be bad day. There’s a lot that checks the list for me. Unfortunately, due to being oncall at work I will not chase today.

 

[Clancy]

From BMX.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

14z hrrr came in a tad more messier than id like to see for a moderate.

12z wrf runs look good though.

 

[Gail]

Look at where the highest CAPE values are located in North MS on the 12z HRRR and latest RRFS run. Right over Me and Monroe County.

Oh yay. It’ll be a long night.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

*SPC mentions a upgrade to moderate in the next outlook as well if guidance becomes more clear.

Stay tuned.

 

[JBishopwx]

Usually, they have a meso discussion about if they will upgrade. That is not the case all the time, but it usually does. The next update is in about 45 minutes (10:30 local)

 

[KevinH]

Usually, they have a meso discussion about if they will upgrade. That is not the case all the time, but it usually does. The next update is in about 45 minutes (10:30 local)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That gif is me trying to get my work done today so I can get home and see what happens with the weather. I'm on a race against time. Probably be like 4:30 or 5 for me unfortunately but I think a decent chunk of this event is supposed to take place right around that or after lol

 

[KevinH]

That gif is me trying to get my work done today so I can get home and see what happens with the weather. I'm on a race against time. Probably be like 4:30 or 5 for me unfortunately but I think a decent chunk of this event is supposed to take place right around that or after lol

Well if it makes you feel any better, the GIF was directed at the SPC lol

 

[Timhsv]

 

[JBishopwx]