...Central to Northeast Gulf Coast States...
Swaths of warm-advection-related precipitation and widespread cloud
cover have hindered daytime heating so far this morning across
southern AL, the FL Panhandle, and GA. Still, some clearing has
recently been noted between the cold front ongoing precipitation.
Most guidance suggests that surface temperatures reaching into the
low 70s will be needed for sufficient boundary-layer destabilization
to support surface-based thunderstorms. Even with this modest
heating, poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the degree of
MLCAPE across the warm sector this afternoon. This should temper
updraft intensities to some extent.
But, latest VWPs from area radars show rather strong low-level and
deep-layer shear are still present across this region. Any robust
convection that can develop along/near the cold front this afternoon
could become supercellular, with an associated threat for a few
tornadoes and isolated damaging winds. But, confidence remains low
that enough instability will develop to support intense
thunderstorms. Have therefore maintained the low-confidence Slight
Risk across this region with minimal changes.
...Georgia into the Carolinas and Southeastern Virginia...
Widespread cloud cover and areas of precipitation remain prevalent
from GA into the NC/SC and VA, with a warm front/retreating wedge
front delineating the northern extent of low-level moisture return.
Instability should remain fairly weak through the period with
northeastward extent from central/northern GA into the Carolinas.
This limits confidence in thunderstorm intensities this afternoon.
Still, a conditional threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two exists with mainly linear convection that can
develop/strengthen along the eastward-moving cold front this
afternoon and evening.
Late tonight, a low-topped line of convection may develop along the
front from NC into southeastern VA and vicinity. While instability
is forecast to remain minimal, strong flow at low/mid levels may
still reach the surface through convective downdrafts. Have expanded
the Marginal Risk for isolated damaging winds northward a bit based
on this potential. Confidence in supercells developing across
coastal/eastern NC in the last few hours of the period remains low.
Which is basically what the SPC just said lol (20% chance of WW issuance)