New York City Hurricane Outlook

[majorhurricane1703]

I was thinking about Fay that hit NJ a week ago and it got me thinking, what are the chances a hurricane makes landfall in the New York City/New Jersey area in 2020? I ask, because if conditions ever do permit hurricanes to form this year, it seems like a northward or northwest motion into NJ/NY isn’t out of the question. My basis seems to be that the high pressure ridge is one of the strongest ones I’ve seen so a system that forms in close might have a narrow window to move north. Also factor in that the North Atlantic coastline water temps are running ridiculously above average and it doesn’t seem as out of the question compared to other active years for a landfall. What do you all think? Any particular thoughts on this?

 

[Kory]

It’s quite difficult to get a landfalling hurricane in that region given the angle of approach (storms are often hitting the westerlies by then and turning NNE/NE) and baroclinic effects of broadening wind fields weakens storms. Even with Sandy (that was such an anomalous event) it wasn’t fully tropical upon landfall although it had wind speeds that would classify it as a hurricane.

But you do note the extensive ridging we’ve seen from the Great Lakes to New England and SE Canada. That might prevent more recurves this year and allow for US impacts from the Gulf to Florida to the Carolinas...once SAL relaxes and the favorable background state of the Atlantic basin takes over.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

It’s quite difficult to get a landfalling hurricane in that region given the angle of approach (storms are often hitting the westerlies by then and turning NNE/NE) and baroclinic effects of broadening wind fields weakens storms. Even with Sandy (that was such an anomalous event) it wasn’t fully tropical upon landfall although it had wind speeds that would classify it as a hurricane.

But you do note the extensive ridging we’ve seen from the Great Lakes to New England and SE Canada. That might prevent more recurves this year and allow for US impacts from the Gulf to Florida to the Carolinas...once SAL relaxes and the favorable background state of the Atlantic basin takes over.

I wonder if I could be on to something this year. We’ve already had Fay and Isaias and it’s not close to the peak yet. That ridge has been unusually strong even for an active season and even knowing that historically speaking storms hit the westerlies by the mid Atlantic. I have a growing sense we will see erratic paths this year like Florence for example. This is something to keep a close eye on as we get into the peak.