• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX March 26th-27th, 2023

Evan said:
Stronger low level shear does appear to be a missing ingredient right now. HRRR ups it over the next several hours so we'll have to see if that pans out.

I was a bit surprised by the probs on the watch the SPC issued. We do have a moderate with a decent sized enhanced surrounding it. Little concerned this is one of those situations where everything looks fairly copacetic until suddenly everything breaks loose. Hope not!
Click to expand...
Yeah, the real question mark is whether the LLJ kicks in strong enough to support any meaningful tornado threat away from the boundary. I think it's pretty clear there will be some form of tornado threat along the boundary where the shear is enhanced, but whether there's enough low-level shear away from the area along the boundary is a bigger question mark.
 
Evan said:
Stronger low level shear does appear to be a missing ingredient right now. HRRR ups it over the next several hours so we'll have to see if that pans out.

I was a bit surprised by the probs on the watch the SPC issued. We do have a moderate with a decent sized enhanced surrounding it. Little concerned this is one of those situations where everything looks fairly copacetic until suddenly everything breaks loose. Hope not!
Click to expand...
Lol it'll probably be a case where you hit that certain threshold of low level shear and then things go nuts, I'm kinda expecting it once it gets dark
 
KevinH said:
How much longer, and where do you think things will go nuts?
Click to expand...
Idk, just looking at the MMFS and forecast models it'll increase a good bit over the next few hours.

And then again it might not lol

The Thomasville warning is concerning though I think that cell will continue to evolve and may pose a risk for a while
 
What are we thinking on the cell merger in west Alabama? Is it going to stay south of Tuscaloosa/northern Bibb or cause me to drag kids and animals to a shelter?
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Lol it'll probably be a case where you hit that certain threshold of low level shear and then things go nuts, I'm kinda expecting it once it gets dark
Click to expand...

I don't see it as a good sign that we're starting to see better structure on some of these cells along with a number of cell mergers. Cells are also generally avoiding just turning into a large blob and are staying more discrete than I would want to see.
 
Evan said:
I don't see it as a good sign that we're starting to see better structure on some of these cells along with a number of cell mergers. Cells are also generally avoiding just turning into a large blob and are staying more discrete than I would want to see.
Click to expand...
Yeah that’s pretty dangerous just because there are so many discrete cells, any one of them could hit the right environment and drop a tornado, and with that many of them it’s almost like playing wack a mole.

Friday was a messy mode (minus the main rolling fork cell) but these have done a good job in staying off to themselves all day in most cases.
 
MoonBaby said:
What are we thinking on the cell merger in west Alabama? Is it going to stay south of Tuscaloosa/northern Bibb or cause me to drag kids and animals to a shelter?
Click to expand...

I would be ready to go to shelter if needed. It's better to be safe than sorry especially if you're in a structure without a basement or good shelter. I'm just north of you in the part of McCalla that is right near both the Tuscaloosa and Bibb county lines.

How long do you need to make it to shelter?
 
Less than ten minutes. Waiting on it to get closer to see if it’s coming this way first.
 
Thank you! Can anyone with a good radar app tell me if those cells under me are showing rotation?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top