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Severe WX March 26th-27th, 2023

From the watch.

"Once the sunsets low level wind shear will increase considerbly."

You got about a hour or so before it starts picking up a good bit I would think.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
From the watch.

"Once the sunsets low level wind shear will increase dramatically."

You got about a hour or so before it starts picking up a good bit I would think.
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Storms also appear to be heading into a corridor of higher instability, which may result in growth. Could also make everything turn into a general, thundery mess; time will tell.
 
The latest HRRR run is a lot more bullish on the discrete convection over Alabama than the last couple, which printed supercells but didn't really produce UH streaks with them. It also pops a big supercell with a strong UH streak up near TCL/BHM around 9-10 pm which I'm sort of skeptical of, but needless to say the 20z run is a good bit more aggressive than the 19z run is, at least in terms of Alabama. Either way it's pretty clear the threat is gonna ramp up a lot after dark yet again.
 
The cell nearing Oakdale, LA, is producing a massive anvil that is choking off cells as far downwind as southern MS. We'll have to see what kinds of results that ends up producing over the next few hours or so.
 
Seems like the boundary is a bit further south than it was supposed to be wondering if it meanders north a bit more like modeling kind of shows.
 
warneagle said:
The latest HRRR run is a lot more bullish on the discrete convection over Alabama than the last couple, which printed supercells but didn't really produce UH streaks with them. It also pops a big supercell with a strong UH streak up near TCL/BHM around 9-10 pm which I'm sort of skeptical of, but needless to say the 20z run is a good bit more aggressive than the 19z run is, at least in terms of Alabama. Either way it's pretty clear the threat is gonna ramp up a lot after dark yet again.
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Oh mercy! That’s almost always a hot spot…and I sit directly between the two cities on I20/59/459…so tired of that! Guess it’s not wise to live near a store called “Target”.
 
Tennie said:
Tornado warning south of Andalusia, AL.
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Yeah those cells are kind of illustrating what I was talking about, they're hooking but not really producing strong low-level rotation because there isn't a ton of low-level shear for them to work with yet. 0-1km SRH values are ~100 in that area according to mesoanalysis.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Seems like the boundary is a bit further south than it was supposed to be wondering if it meanders north a bit more like modeling kind of shows.
Click to expand...
It's right around where the 20z HRRR initialized it, so it's basically in line with the most recent model runs. There should still be a few more hours of moisture advection if the HRRR is to be believed; it has the 65F isodrosotherm roughly along I-20 by 02z.
 
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