Severe WX March 21-23 2022

[brianc33710]

Day One doesn't move further north, assume they're waiting for surface obs according to the discussion; little surprising that didn't expand more yet

View attachment 12735

Moderate has spread more horizontally though. A sliver of SW AL now shows Mod R. Bham is now more into Slight instead of the Marginal/Slight border. The SPC gave 3 reasons that could limit the severity & scope of the severe weather that explains why they haven't gone High to this point. Moderate is bad enough though.

 

[kcyalater]

Moderate has spread more horizontally though. A sliver of SW AL now shows Mod R. Bham is now more into Slight instead of the Marginal/Slight border. The SPC gave 3 reasons that could limit the severity & scope of the severe weather that explains why they haven't gone High to this point. Moderate is bad enough though.

still a big uncertainty outside of south central MS. i thought their explanation was great.

 

[Equus]

Moderate definitely makes sense with the given uncertainties, and not really expecting a high given that, though if moisture advection is as significant as some of the CAMs have been suggesting it could lead to at least an expansion later; interested to see the 1300 and 1630 outlooks once surface obs and the evolution of the MCS are in play. Outlook looks good though it definitely seems they're not buying into the CAMs suggesting prefrontals further up the MS/AL line

 

[MattPetrulli]

Was kinda skeptical of SPC putting the 15% so far west into LA, however starting to warm up to the idea of semi discrete/embedded supercells forming and traversing LA in mid-late morning in parameters more than favorable for strong tornadoes

Could get messed up by overall messiness, but 15z HRRR was lot more insistent/intense on the idea of multiple semi-discrete/embedded supercells traversing LA. Will have to watch.

 

[buckeye05]

There will definitely be tornadoes today, but I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being more linear than expected. The CAMs leading up to yesterday's event were showing a stronger signal for large, discrete supercells than what I'm seeing now. With that said said, the parameters are impressive and if some cells fire ahead of the line and really get going it could get ugly, but whether that actually happens remains to be seen.

 

[buckeye05]

One tornado fatality reported in Sherwood Shores, TX unfortunately.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Apologize if this was already shared - footage from Elgin of the tornado knocking a pickup truck around on a highway.

Like something straight out of Twister...only thing missing is crashing through a house that got rolled onto the road.

 

[OHWX97]

Possibility of multiple QLCS spin ups approaching the Houston metro. One area of rotation near Spring Valley Village and another near Missouri City.

 

[TCLwx]

Tornado watch out until 2pm CDT for parts of SE TX and LA.

 

[kcyalater]

There will definitely be tornadoes today, but I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being more linear than expected. The CAMs leading up to yesterday's event were showing a stronger signal for large, discrete supercells than what I'm seeing now. With that said said, the parameters are impressive and if some cells fire ahead of the line and really get going it could get ugly, but whether that actually happens remains to be seen.

the Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency factor today is very high imo.

 

[warneagle]

There will definitely be tornadoes today, but I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being more linear than expected. The CAMs leading up to yesterday's event were showing a stronger signal for large, discrete supercells than what I'm seeing now. With that said said, the parameters are impressive and if some cells fire ahead of the line and really get going it could get ugly, but whether that actually happens remains to be seen.

Yeah the sigtor threat is really gonna be conditional on how much discrete development we get. There's definitely a failure mode where this ends up being mostly linear without a ton of discrete prefrontal convection. But if we do get discrete development...it's gonna be a big problem.

 

[Lori]

Like something straight out of Twister...only thing missing is crashing through a house that got rolled onto the road.

I watched this at least 10x…. he drove off after being spun every which way!!

 

[Equus]

Warm sector supercells is always a huuuuge crapshoot for our events, at this point hard to say

Also moisture return better hurry up

 

[Equus]

Moderate expanded a bit

 

[CheeselandSkies]

From the 13Z outlook:

With at least a 60-70 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, classic
sickle-shaped hodographs in a broad portion of the warm/moist sector
will conditionally support potential for a regional tornado outbreak.

With the SPC of 15-20 years ago, that alone would have been enough to support a high risk. That's why you saw a lot more major events covered by them, but also a lot more busts.

 

[brianc33710]

I watched this at least 10x…. he drove off after being spun every which way!!

Chevy/GMC will feature this in truck ads for years to come.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I think SPC has set themselves up to go high risk.

 

[JayF]

Chevy/GMC will feature this in truck ads for years to come.

Like a Rock. As Strong as I can be, Like a Rock.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I think SPC has set themselves up to go high risk.

And I think we get it with the 1630z update.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

13Z HRRR brings back (it had vanished for at least a few runs overnight) a beastly supercell that tracks NNE well out ahead of the line through eastern Mississippi this afternoon.