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Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

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FXUS64 KBMX 192005
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
305 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Confidence has increased in the potential for explosive supercell
thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight
especially along and north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Calera to
Wedowee. A dangerous environment will also be in place south of
this line, but initiation of storms and storm coverage is
questionable.

Currently, surface winds have veered to the southwest across most
of the area following the passage of a warm front. Normally this
would yield lower dewpoints and overall moisture quality, but this
does not appear to be the case. Dewpoints are holding in the mid
to upper 60s upstream across MS. Moisture quality should not be an
issue as this event progresses.

This event will hinge on evolution of the surface to 850mb wind
fields in response to the approaching upper-level trough. We are
already seeing this response across the northern half of MS where
winds are south to southeast near Tupelo and Columbus. Hi-res
models appear to be getting a better handle on the mesoscale
features and are slowly trending more aggressive with surface
pressure troughing and backing of winds in the 23-03z time frame.
HRRR guidance suggests the potential for 0-1km shear to exceed
40kts. This amount of shear combined with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg,
supports a risk for a few long-track tornadoes. A violent tornado
cannot be ruled out. The best chance of these enhanced ingredients
coming together for long-track tornadoes appears to be from I-65
eastward and as far south as Shelby, Talladega, Clay, and Randolph
counties.

Balloon launches are planned for 330 PM, 6 PM, and 730 PM to sample
critical changes in the low-level wind environment.

87/Grantham
 
That storm is moving between Mt. Cheaha and I-20 right where Talladega, Calhoun, and Cleburne meet. Very rural area. If it was north of the interstate, that would be a very populated area in Oxford/Anniston metro. That storm is about 5-6 miles south of an area that got hammered by large hail last March. They are still putting roofs on from that event a year later!
 
Thankfully the Talladega county storm is missing the Anniston/Oxford population center. Cheaha State Park might be getting hammered though.
 
I know the MD came out an hour ago, but I'm kind of surprised they haven't actually issued the watch yet as initiation seems to have begun in MS. For most tornado watches, they seem to issue them right before initiation begins for maximum lead time.
 
Equus said:
I know the MD came out an hour ago, but I'm kind of surprised they haven't actually issued the watch yet as initiation seems to have begun in MS. For most tornado watches, they seem to issue them right before initiation begins for maximum lead time.
Click to expand...

Yeah I was kind of wondering the same thing. Give people as much lead time as you can with the watch, especially when it's gonna be PDS.
 
warneagle said:
Yeah I was kind of wondering the same thing. Give people as much lead time as you can with the watch, especially when it's gonna be PDS.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm shocked the watch isn't out yet. Perhaps trying to tie down final probabilities. Surely we will see it at 330?
 
WBRC just reported upcoming TOR watch will likely be as far south as Chilton county, and will be a PDS
 
Impressive look at the hail passing through Meridianville, AL a few minutes ago

 
Tornado watch issued, weather radio just went off.
 
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