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Severe WX March 17 - 20, 2020 Severe Threat

Yeah just about every severe event so far this year, with the obvious exception of 3/3, has been a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, and the one that wasn't ended up being the sort of mass casualty catastrophe that you NEVER hope for.

It's reminding me of 2018, which was a pretty disappointing season from a storm enthusiast and aspiring chaser's point of view.

I know 2016 was a rare jackpot of a season (lots of beautiful supercells and tornadoes with an unusually low death and injury toll) but I seriously think Mother Nature needs to serve us up more storm seasons like it.
 
SilentShadow87 said:
Yeah just about every severe event so far this year, with the obvious exception of 3/3, has been a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. It's reminding me of 2018, and while you never hope for death and destruction from storms, 2018 was a really boring season from an enthusiast/aspiring chaser's point of view.

I know 2016 was a rare jackpot of a season (lots of beautiful supercells and tornadoes with an unusually low death and injury toll) but I seriously think Mother Nature needs to serve us up more storm seasons like it.
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Well, we've largely been in +AAM for most of 2020, which favors a northerly shifted/retracted Pac jet. This is now nosediving into negative range, but we'll have to see if the pattern responds.
 
Yikes, that looked like a big one...we will have to wait for surveys to come out.
Threat shifts NE to higher plains area today. I don’t see anything this morning to note on radar though, some showers blowing through now.
 
Looks like that tornado avoided a lot of structures which is good news. Only report I’ve seen is moderate house damage and a barn that was damaged.
 
Tornado Watch issued for areas in East Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and a little slice of Louisiana.
ww0056_radar.gif

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SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 56
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
central and western Arkansas
northwest Louisiana
eastern Oklahoma
north central and northeast Texas

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to intensify from eastern Oklahoma and
north central Texas and continue east into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Damaging wind, a few tornadoes and large hail will be
possible with the stronger storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Flippin AR to 35
miles south southeast of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Dial
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Does not include heart of DFW Metro (Dallas, Tarrant, Denton counties) but does include Collin and Rockwall counties to the north and east.
 
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