- Moderator
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A discussion thread for the weekend severe weather threat March 11th-12th, 2023.
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Severe WX March 11th-12th, 2023
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
ashtonlemleywx
Member
I was wondering who was going to pull the trigger and make a thread. I sounded the alarm for this weekend around 7 days ago.
Model flip flopping was probably biggest reason for the delay.
My guess is this will keep current slight risk bubble and may get a smaller localized enhanced bubble Sunday morning.
Model flip flopping was probably biggest reason for the delay.
My guess is this will keep current slight risk bubble and may get a smaller localized enhanced bubble Sunday morning.
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Kevin forgot to do his job... Smh..
KevinH
Member
Not me…. I think I have created enough threads for a bit hahahahaa… we’ll see what happens towards the end of the month in April
I think the policy for creating threads has been updated. Threads should only be created for threats that are within 8 days if the event. Events more than 9 days out (regardless of the chatter online and what the models say are to be kept in the Severe Weather 2023 thread.
Personally, I would not create a thread within D8 now unless and until the SPC highlights an area, but that is just me.
I wont get “concerned” until about D3 if there has been model consistency. The model flip flopping gets on my nerves, so I just ignore them until about D3 LOL
KevinH
Member
Oh hush lol
Hrrr shows a pretty nasty squall line Sunday for south alabama and south Mississippi
KevinH
Member
It's been a while since ive seen such a robust QCLS in south Alabama as the 06z hrrr shows lol
May be a robust spin up threat with the storms as well haven't completely looked at everything yet. But that's relatively impressive.
Paint me stupid but a enchanched for wind damage may be needed eventually
Paint me stupid but a enchanched for wind damage may be needed eventually
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- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #12
Short term guidance such as the CSU-MLP and nadocast show tornado probs of 10% tomorrow. I suspect we could see a significant tornado tomorrow.
Hey! The hrrr has a pretty significant cell taking advantage of. A pretty good environment on the hrrr over west Arkansas today... 
Current run of the HRRR. Hodographs are pretty good in those areas.. might be worth watching tonight... Probably will end up as very large hail but maybe a spin up 
KevinH
Member
To the south of me….. good
KevinH
Member
Hrrr presents a pretty robust event for coastal and south Alabama tommorow. I'd honestly be surprised if we don't see a enchanched risk
KevinH
Member
ENH for hail or wind?
Damaging winds I would think
Hrrr predicting a insane hailstorm in Arkansas in a few hours