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January 30th-February 1st Winter Storm potential

I think a important note as well guys. Is that the snow ratio will more and likely be 20:1 but could be higher as Jason Simpson said. So the snow maps will be a little skewed less I think.

Snowmaggedon was 25:1 with how little precip fell over bham that day it still produced a decent bit.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I think a important note as well guys. Is that the snow ratio will more and likely be 20:1 but could be higher as Jason Simpson said. So the snow maps will be a little skewed less I think.

Snowmaggedon was 25:1 with how little precip fell over bham that day it still produced a decent bit.
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Whatever does fall, I hope it makes it down to the Selma area...fingers crossed!
 
From KATL, KFFC

As the
system moves eastward/northeastward, with a strong northwest flow in the
Low levels will drive wind gusts >30mph for much of the area.
Combining this with the 20:1 snow ratios, we could see some
"surprise" snowbands with isolated accumulations even in the dry
slot.

At this time, the probability of at least 1" of snow in the ATL metro
sits between 10 and 40% with higher probabilities north and east.
This is likely an attempt to represent the patchy coverage with most
areas getting little to nothing, and a lucky few receiving a good
quick snow.

Temperatures on the backside of the low will be frigid, and
windchills could drop below zero Sunday morning. Temperatures may
not eek past freezing until Monday morning with a slow temperature
recovery, and no further precipitation is expected.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I think a important note as well guys. Is that the snow ratio will more and likely be 20:1 but could be higher as Jason Simpson said. So the snow maps will be a little skewed less I think.

Snowmaggedon was 25:1 with how little precip fell over bham that day it still produced a decent bit.
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I definitely get what the Winter Weenie craze has been about - I'm really wanting a little snow after that ice storm. A few inches of the white stuff would be nice, and considering the temperatures being well below freezing, it would be actual snow and not the slushy mess we usually get when we think of "snow" down here.
 
cyelle21 said:
BMX is saying Winter Weather is highly unlikely at this point...I still haven't given up hope that I will at least see some flurries....hoping for a dusting.
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They're not as pessimistic in this morning's AFD. Hopefully, the upper-level low will come further west, and everyone see snow.

Friday Night through Sunday:

The arctic plunge will quickly begin Friday night as the cold
front sweeps across the state and a negatively-tilted 500mb trough
and very potent vort max dives across the Tennessee River Valley.
The system is progged to quickly organize and deepen into an
upper level closed low and track from Nashville to Athens,
Georgia during the day on Saturday. This morning`s synoptic
guidance is showing the track of the upper low just a tad further
west and southwest from yesterday`s runs, which would potentially
lead to a better synoptic setup for convective bands of snow
showers to develop with 700mb wrap-around moisture moving south
out of the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. At this point in
time, I`ve decided to not mention a chance for snow showers in the
forecast for Saturday just yet being three days away. However,
based on the guidance this morning if those trends hold up we`ll
likely have to add the chance for snow showers across the
northern and eastern half of the CWA. To be honest, I really
wanted to add it in this morning, but with a lack of high-res and
CAM solutions the NBM isn`t grabbing the potential just yet. Synoptic
guidance is simply too coarse to pick up on mesoscale-driven
convective snow band development this far out, so we`ll see what
the CAMs pick up on over the next couple of days.
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From BMX; "To be honest, I really wanted to add it in this morning, but with a lack of high-res and CAM solutions the NBM isn`t grabbing the potential just yet. Synoptic guidance is simply too coarse to pick up on mesoscale-driven convective snow band development this far out, so we`ll see what the CAMs pick up on over the next couple of days."

Isn't this supposed to happen on Saturday? That IS a couple of days out. So, they literally won't know until it is happening?!
 
cyelle21 said:
From BMX; "To be honest, I really wanted to add it in this morning, but with a lack of high-res and CAM solutions the NBM isn`t grabbing the potential just yet. Synoptic guidance is simply too coarse to pick up on mesoscale-driven convective snow band development this far out, so we`ll see what the CAMs pick up on over the next couple of days."

Isn't this supposed to happen on Saturday? That IS a couple of days out. So, they literally won't know until it is happening?!
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Not knowing until the day of an event or until the time in question happens can very be a thing when it comes to the weather.

Weather can be very complicated and is not as black and white as some people think. It’s tough.
 
cyelle21 said:
From BMX; "To be honest, I really wanted to add it in this morning, but with a lack of high-res and CAM solutions the NBM isn`t grabbing the potential just yet. Synoptic guidance is simply too coarse to pick up on mesoscale-driven convective snow band development this far out, so we`ll see what the CAMs pick up on over the next couple of days."

Isn't this supposed to happen on Saturday? That IS a couple of days out. So, they literally won't know until it is happening?!
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Im just hoping this isn't a scenario where a winter weather advisory will be needed and it gets issued when snow starts sticking
 
This is from the Tampa Bay NWS AFD. It looks like there is a low chance of ocean-effect snow. It would be cool if it occurs.

- The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a
very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level
moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to
develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night.
With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to
see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal
waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or
northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures
dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after
midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become
light mixed snow/rain showers or snow showers/flurries.
Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally
onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation
from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low
probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility.
It`s common in scenarios like this that drizzle or very light
rain gets reported as snow...when in fact surface temperatures
don`t support that possibility.
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UncleJuJu98 said:
12z hrrr has some lake effect snow over Alabama. Whoever gets setup over one of those will get isolated higher totals.
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i work at Old Cahawba Archaeological Park and we are literally situated on a peninsula...where the Cahaba River curves around the park and empties into the Alabama River. We have Clear Creek on our west side, the Cahaba River on our north side and the Alabama River on our East side...Is there such a thing as "river effect snow?"
 
cyelle21 said:
i work at Old Cahawba Archaeological Park and we are literally situated on a peninsula...where the Cahaba River curves around the park and empties into the Alabama River. We have Clear Creek on our west side, the Cahaba River on our north side and the Alabama River on our East side...Is there such a thing as "river effect snow?"
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Yes, I remember it happening on the Tennessee River in Alabama, but I can't find the news article about it. However, I did find one from Memphis from when it happened there in 2019.

www.actionnews5.com

Memphis sees river effect snow Tuesday: What is it?

You may have heard of lake effect snow, which is very common across the Great Lakes region, but have you ever heard of river effect snow? It happened Tuesday morning in the Mid-South.
www.actionnews5.com www.actionnews5.com

Edit: Found it. It happened in 2016.
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu

“Lake effect” snow in northern Alabama

Wheeler Lake is a reservoir along the Tennessee River in northern Alabama. The Aqua MODIS Sea Surface Temperature product (above) showed that water temperatures along the axis of the lake were as warm as the lower 50s F (cyan color enhancement) on 07 February 2016. Following the passage of a...
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu
 
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Cyclonic Paracosm said:
Winter Storm Watch headlines in NC now.
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Wouldn't be surprised to see an extension of the watch down to about Charleston. Models are in pretty good agreement of at least 1-2" inches down here. That would not normally meet WSW criteria up north but I believe the local NWS offices make exceptions for such advisories when they are rare for the area, or would result in a higher impact for the area than others.
 
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