Almost a million customers are without power on what is going to be one of the coldest nights in a long time in the eastern half of the country, with TN being the hardest hit so far with over a quarter million customers without. I feel really lucky tonight - and I think those of us who have lucked out like this are going to find out how much we lucked out within the next couple of days. I expect we may have some black ice related travel problems to deal with in a lot of places that didn't get ice or snow, but that is a small price to pay to not be in an ice storm.
We've also very much benefitted from this system dropping so much sleet in the areas that did get hit instead of the freezing rain that was expected. That's no comfort to those who did get the freezing rain of course, but if what the models had predicted had occurred, we would be seeing MUCH higher levels of power outages than we have seen. Sleet bounces off trees and powerlines. It is a huge blessing that it was the dominant precip type, and it should also remind us as weather enthusiasts and as those in the weather prediction business that we still have a LONG way to go in understanding and predicting precipitation types in winter storms.
On the models - say what you will about their long range errors, when it came to the warm nose and the wedge, not only did the Euro nail it a few days out and correct its long range, the other models then all caught on a few days out, meaning all would have given decent lead time on this system as far as where would be hit, even if it missed the amounts of which type of precip. I am struck by how much better the prediction of these has gotten in my lifetime. We've gone from frequent surprises with them to very, very rarely being caught off guard by something a weather system does.