Hurricane Rafael

[Atlantic]

Hurricane Rafael is centered south of Cuba as of now, but it may be a threat to anywhere from Louisana to Florida, if it doesn't turn westwards.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Atlantic]

Rafael is now a major hurricane!

1PM update gives the intensity as 115 mph, with a minimum pressure of 956 mbs.

Rafael is the 5th major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the first November major since Iota in 2020.

 

[Atlantic]

What is it with 2024 and hurricane faces?

 

[slenker]

Rafael’s projected path by the models is very strange… some are having it go north to Louisiana, some are having it stall and go south, and some are having it just stall in the middle of the Gulf. What would the worst case scenario be here?

 

[JPWX]

Rafael’s projected path by the models is very strange… some are having it go north to Louisiana, some are having it stall and go south, and some are having it just stall in the middle of the Gulf. What would the worst case scenario be here?

The Euro is the main model taking it west into Mexico. Until other models latch onto that idea, I'm not buying it. The best case is it dissipates altogether which could happen, but we'll see. I personally don't see this totally dissipating at this time. The worse case would be it gets in the Western Gulf, reintensifies, does a loop de loop, and comes back north/northeast. The reintensification can happen due to Rafael being ventilated by the trough of low pressure.

 

[Atlantic]

Recon has been going through Rafael this morning. Recon found pressure as low as 970 mbs in the storm so far.

They have been finding a lot of 83-96 kt winds near the center.

I will go 105 mph, 970 mbs for 11 AM. (NOTE: THIS IS MY INTENSITY ESTIMATE, NOT THE NHC'S)

 

[Atlantic]

The ATCF now lists Rafael's intensity as 90 kts (105 mph) and a pressure of 969 mbs.

 

[Atlantic]

The ATCF now lists Rafael's intensity as 90 kts (105 mph) and a pressure of 969 mbs.

Correction, NHC's 10 AM EST advisory gives the intensity as 100 mph, 971 mbs.

Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

 

[Clancy]

Rafael remains an impressive-looking storm late this evening.

 

[Clancy]

 

[Blountwolf]

Noticed while looking to see how much rain we might get here in Alabama that Baton Rouge looks to be the bullseye for an interaction between outflow from Rafael and the front. Front stalls with heavy convection for a long time and dumps a lot of rain.