Hurricane Hurricane Milton

Blountwolf said:
Frankly, this is about the time in watching storms that I throw out the models. I mean that not to say I throw out what they've said would happen, just that we're now more watching the players on the stage in a play it has given us the plot to - you know what is expected, but you have yet to see the performances. Will the core be the star? The dry air? The loop current? Will there be any surprises? Are any players going to deviate from the script? Is the plot twist at the end (the dramatic weakening before landfall) really going to happen?

Stay tuned, viewers...lol.

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Milton's appearence right now reminds me of the Wikipedia photo of Super Cyclonic Storm Mocha from the NIO last year.
 
I think even reintensification may be in jeopardy - he's got dry air issues. More moisture up the channel will likely help that, but at the moment it looks to me like we may be getting some core disruption. Here's hoping. Note the light streaks on the north side of the core, and how bottom heavy he is at the moment.

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Blountwolf said:
I think even reintensification may be in jeopardy - he's got dry air issues. More moisture up the channel will likely help that, but at the moment it looks to me like we may be getting some core disruption. Here's hoping. Note the light streaks on the north side of the core, and how bottom heavy he is at the moment.

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I still feel it's likely once it moves away from Yucatan and gets to the loop current, with the jet stream's help, this is gonna secondary peak.
 
wx_guy said:
I still feel it's likely once it moves away from Yucatan and gets to the loop current, with the jet stream's help, this is gonna secondary peak.
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Certainly seems like it would - but core disruptions from dry air can really impact that. Helene had that issue and took a long while to mix it out. It's probably just wishcasting on my part - anything to potentially reduce the hit from this storm on Tampa is my friend at this point.
 
Blountwolf said:
Certainly seems like it would - but core disruptions from dry air can really impact that. Helene had that issue and took a long while to mix it out. It's probably just wishcasting on my part - anything to potentially reduce the hit from this storm on Tampa is my friend at this point.
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It IS looking rather lopsided and disheveled a bit at the moment. So maybe you're right.
 
Wrapping back around and compensating now, but that was definitely a dry air streak. Fingers crossed it does/did some damage.

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Very cold tops on the convection wrapping the core back up. Hello pinks again.
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Some snippets from the discussion:

"Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24
hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be
enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening."

"Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone."
 
Welp - that's how a new eyewall is built in a hurry. Goodness that was dramatic.
 
With the way it wrapped that core right back up so quick, Cat 5 once more here we come...
 
Yep, expelled that streak with a quickness, dang it. Well, we appreciate the brief assist anyway there, Yucatan.
 
Neat structure at the moment. Rather angular.
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