Hurricane Hurricane Milton

To all hotel administrators preying on scared and vulnerable evacuees: I hope you get diarrhea at an extremely inconvenient time in the near future.
 
Well...its looking like that EWRC was merely a Hiccup for Milton as it looks primed for another rapid intensification right back to category 5 status.
 
Extrapolated pressure up to 930 mb but the eyewall is closed again and the eye has contracted again to 12 nm
 
897mbs overnight?!?!?! Say hello top 10 Milton.
 
So a 30mb rise with the EWRC. Structure looks good, wind field expanded, and now the trip over loop current. Eye isn't really very big still, so it may be a quick ramp up today. Hopefully we don't see it go back sub 900, but it's possible I think. I'll personally go with 910 as the lowest it goes back down to.
 
A good portion of the southern rainbands are over the Yacutan, could that have played a supplemental part in the rise in pressure to the EWRC?

Structure is still very solid. I expect it to rebound to Cat 5 at least once.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
A good portion of the southern rainbands are over the Yacutan, could that have played a supplemental part in the rise in pressure to the EWRC?

Structure is still very solid. I expect it to rebound to Cat 5 at least once.
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probably not, the center stayed offshore, main issue was the EWRC
 
A bit ragged on the NW side - hopefully that is in response to dry air intrusion. Rebounding today with a bigger wind field, he risks sucking in a slug of dry air to the core. Cross your fingers that process starts early. I took a peek at the 0z HAFS solutions last night before I went to bed, and they seemed like they were backing off that interaction and kept it stronger before landfall. I REALLY hope we don't see that trend continue today - we need it to suck in some dry air before landfall as expected.

EDIT - ah, good - I see 06Z backed back off that. Both HAFS show a period of reintensification, but then a fast weakening before landfall again.


For those interested - here's the MIMIC pass of the EWRC.

MIMIC

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

Definitely seems like it has lost some of the symmetry in the CDO it had - very ragged north side.
 
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Frankly, this is about the time in watching storms that I throw out the models. I mean that not to say I throw out what they've said would happen, just that we're now more watching the players on the stage in a play it has given us the plot to - you know what is expected, but you have yet to see the performances. Will the core be the star? The dry air? The loop current? Will there be any surprises? Are any players going to deviate from the script? Is the plot twist at the end (the dramatic weakening before landfall) really going to happen?

Stay tuned, viewers...lol.

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No surprises, but aside from winds, of which hurricane-force ones will span the entire central region of Florida, Milton will bring a major flooding threat.
 
Could this go back under 900?
 
Atlantic said:
Could this go back under 900?
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When the right side of the CDO is due north of the channel and the core is on the loop - maybe. But I doubt it, personally. A bit too big of a hit from the EWRC, that's a long way to deepen and it will take longer to spin up with a bigger wind field now.
 
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