Hurricane Hurricane Milton

While Milton is undergoing EWRC, I'm not sure it will mean much in terms of weakening, especially not to any substantial degree.
 
Tomcats Forever! said:
I wonder what it's gonna do after the EWRC completes.
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The HAFS-B model implies it will then tighten the larger eyewall down to 884mb as it passes over the loop current north of the Yucatan channel. It will soon thereafter ingest a big slug of dry air that it wraps around itself from the north. That's the basics of what's expected. We've all been talking here at various times over the last couple days about whether HAFS was overdoing it, but so far it's been the only one that came close to what Milton has actually done in terms of strength.
 
And what if the EWRC fails to complete. I've seen where that tends to happen some.
 
EWRCs are truly a watch and see. The stronger the storm, the easier time it has with it, in my experience. I've seen Pacific storms walk right through them without slowing down, but that was in the open Pacific, not the Gulf. We're kind of in uncharted territory here. Let's all hope it tears it apart, but I expect it's not likely to affect it much at all. And then it gets a bigger wind field.
 
We want to all be cheering for the orange on this enhanced mid level water vapor image... lol. This is the dry air that will wrap around and ultimately weaken Milton. The sooner it happens the better - but it isn't expected for a while yet.
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Was perusing TBW's products and noticed some very strong wording from their afternoon AFD.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
158 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Oct 7
2024

Major Hurricane Milton is now an extremely strong Cat 5 hurricane
with winds up to 175 mph. Milton will grow in size as it heads
towards the West Coast of Florida as a disastrous hurricane. Milton
is expected to weaken slightly but will still be a major Cat 3
hurricane at landfall with destructive damage expected on Wednesday.
Storm Surge along and south of the track will be life threatening
and catastrophic. If you are asked to evacuate you need to do so.
This storm surge will be life threatening. The high winds will also
cause widespread and major damage as the eyewall tracks through the
state. If you are outside of the storm surge area and decide to stay
you need to have supplies to last for a week or more without power
or water.

Bottom line: If Milton stays on its course this will be the most
powerful hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years. No one in the
area has ever experience a hurricane this strong before.
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We'll see if this EWRC has any impact on it at 10pm or earlier.
 
Anyone have a better interface than SSEC's for MIMIC, or is this the best we've got? Anyway - this is one of the best ways to see eyewall changes. You can see toward the end of this loop the eyewall start undergoing significant changes as an outer eyewall forms.

 
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Still a ton of lightning occurring in the eye.
 

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Concentric eyewalls, at the least. As the EWRC progresses, the inner eyewall will collapse, which often looks like the eye fills in completely on satellite, then a new, larger eyewall takes over and the bigger area clears with time. How much time? Depends - it'll drive weather nuts crazy taking forever some times, and sometimes it's over about the time you see it happening. Really is one you just have to watch, they're all kind of different. Pressure either increases (seems to have happened here if 912 is correct), or at the very least the rate of deepening slows.

Folks smarter than me - correct me if I am wrong or have oversimplified anything to the point of absurdity, please. This isn't a set of my knowledge of things I access very often, so your mileage may vary...lol.
 
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912? Excellent.
 
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