Hurricane Hurricane JOVA (EPAC)

[Casuarina Head]

^ Based on the above, the race between JOVA and LEE is on: which storm can be stronger, and which will peak first? We may well see two near-simultaneous Cat-5s in both basins.

According to the latest best-track update, JOVA is now a 115-knot Category-4, and based on trends, is likely to continue rapidly intensifying—probably reaching Cat-5 status shortly:

EP, 11, 2023090618, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1111W, 115, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 10, 1010, 250, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

Source

 

[Taylor Campbell]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 070245
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

The remarkable rapid intensification (RI) of Jova has continued this
evening. The hurricane's very warm, 10 n-mi-wide eye is surrounded
by a symmetric central dense overcast of convective cloud tops
colder than -75 deg C. Recent SSMIS microwave images suggest an
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway, with signs of a
formative secondary eyewall noted in 89-GHz imagery. The GOES
Geostationary Lightning Mapper has also shown an increase in inner
core lightning activity during the past several hours. Based on
Dvorak data-T numbers of 7.0 from SAB and TAFB at 00 UTC and rapidly
climbing objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity of
Jova is raised to 140 kt. This makes Jova a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and signifies an 80-kt
intensity increase over the past 24 h.

The onset of an ERC and the recent lightning activity suggest that
the hurricane could be nearing its peak intensity. Structural
changes related to the ERC could cause some near-term intensity
fluctuations, but the NHC forecast still allows for a bit more
strengthening overnight given Jova's striking satellite presentation
and the conducive oceanic and atmospheric conditions along its path.
The hurricane is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in 36-48 h,
after which time a faster rate of weakening is forecast while Jova
moves over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment.
Regardless, Jova is likely to remain a powerful hurricane for the
next few days. This forecast shows Jova keeping its tropical cyclone
status through day 5, although the global models suggest it could be
mostly devoid of convection and nearly post-tropical by the end of
the forecast period.

A mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico is steering Jova to
the west-northwest (300/13 kt). With the ridge entrenched to its
north, the hurricane is expected to continue on a west-northwestward
heading for the next several days, as depicted by the well-clustered
track guidance. The updated NHC forecast lies very close to the
previous prediction, but once again has been adjusted slightly
faster based on the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. As the
cyclone gradually spins down and weakens over cooler waters, the
shallow vortex is forecast to turn more westward at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 113.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.6N 117.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.4N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 22.8N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 24.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.5N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

 

[bjdeming]

Lee is going for it now, but the competition is tough: