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Hurricane Hurricane Ernesto

JPWX

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PTC Five was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto earlier today. Impacts expected to Puerto Rico and northern Leeward Islands with potential impacts to Bermuda. Possible U.S. impacts remain to be seen.
 

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JPWX

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Not much change with Ernesto in 10pm update except it continues west at 25mph down from 28mph.

On another note, there's a slight, but noticeable shift west towards the end of the track when it's nearing Bermuda
 

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Mike S

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DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 67.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight,
with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed
continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move
across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach
Bermuda Friday and Saturday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
 

slenker

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GFS has this thing at C3 intensity, while Euro has this thing at C2/C3, so there’s some agreement there with the intensity. However, I personally think it may go 130 MPH C4 due to the globals being pretty conservative with intensity so far this year.

Edit: NHC has it hitting major hurricane status now, so there’s that too.
 
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jiharris0220

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Despite Ernesto underperformance, this video goes to show that a hurricane doesn’t need to be anywhere near the coast to cause destruction.

I have to assume this would not have happened if not for sea level rise, as the house looks old and went through many rough surf events.
 
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