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Severe WX Historic April 27-May 1 2024 Midwest Storms

JPWX said:
Meanwhile NW flow/MCS pattern setting up
Click to expand...
If medium range guidance is right, that's not a necessarily a sustained NW flow pattern as much as it is transient ridging out ahead of shortwaves that are coming across. There are synoptically evident type Dixie severe threats (shortwave troughs, deep sfc lows, etc) being modeled toward the 2nd week to mid month on the GFS, and now in some of the Euro ensemble members.
 
Looked away from the radar for a few minutes and came back to this!
1714521771501.png
 
Fred Gossage said:
If medium range guidance is right, that's not a necessarily a sustained NW flow pattern as much as it is transient ridging out ahead of shortwaves that are coming across. There are synoptically evident type Dixie severe threats (shortwave troughs, deep sfc lows, etc) being modeled toward the 2nd week to mid month on the GFS, and now in some of the Euro ensemble members.
Click to expand...
Ah okay
 
Jefferson Co. KS EMA confirms rain-wrapped tornado OTG.
1714522068502.png
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
707 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KSC045-087-010030-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-240501T0030Z/
Jefferson-Douglas-
707 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 707 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 1 south
of Williamstown, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Perry, Lecompton, and Williamstown.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 190 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3901 9549 3905 9549 3914 9551 3913 9520
3896 9520
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 273DEG 24KT 3906 9532

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Gargan
Click to expand...
 
Hopefully the storm is done producing tornadoes but it's going to get pretty nasty for those people north of Bonner Springs waiting for that outdoor concert to start
 
atrainguy said:
Here's the radar imagery for ref

Click to expand...

Note that the lowered CC is south of Centerville, co-located with the lighter reflectivity in the inflow. That's inflow noise.

EDIT: I should note that there very well could still possibly be a tornado with that storm, but that's not a TDS that's being seen at that CC lowering.
 
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