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General Parameter Threads (Composite , Possible Hazard Type, SARS and other parameters)

joshoctober16

joshoctober16

Member
Messages
547
Location
Canada New brunswick
I have way to much to talk about and I'm not sure where to start.

This thread was made for multiple reasons , i feel like there are zero area to talk about and develop better ways to forecast tornadoes

for example , there is zero composite tornado parameters for hybrid tornadoes

there are no cape vs DCAPE parameters (helpful for finding a cold pool vs tornadic vs throwing Mesos away and nothing happens) events

but i can at least say it seems there are zero composite parameter that both has moister and a capping limit so it would not overflow (a big issue with the VTP)


we can talk about known composite parameters.

lost composite parameters (i know a few)

and create are own parameters to better forecast , instead of just... slowly taking hours to look at every little part and then its too late it already pass...

(i have 3 composite parameters i am currently making)

il start with something simple

the possible hazard type in my opinion is kind of a good idea but poorly made

modified.png

1: PDS TOR is made to be a all parameters from under are here and are max out, sadly 2 things they missed (STPF should be at 4 not 3) and the biggest one is the LowRH + MidRH parameter .... is missing.... ive seen multiple times of PDS TOR areas with nothing happening and one of the biggest 2 reasons is the lack of the RH part

2: how the second MRGL TOR is made makes one option impossible to reach , this can simply be fix by changing the STPE to 0.5

3: missing parameters , what is seen on the side , MLCAPE , BWD 0-6 km , MLLCL height , RH and K index should be given to all of the TOR

4:for the RH situation that is currently for one TOR should also be limited of how high it can go , if its too height its become a rain stratus mess

5: Low K index / TT index is a major thing i see for when a clear Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency event happens.

6:MLCIN for PDS should be limited to -1 or -2 as 95% of all sig tornado happened in a -2 to -60 cin

7:LCL should be limited for how low for the stratus mess situation

what i show you are just the Major change and major additional parameters for it.

there are other minor parameters i would add, i would also make one for hybrids and landspouts , as they would not even be showing up as SVR or TOR on some events.

i shall later post other things here , anyone can come up with their own ideas.
 
joshoctober16 said:
I have way to much to talk about and I'm not sure where to start.

This thread was made for multiple reasons , i feel like there are zero area to talk about and develop better ways to forecast tornadoes

for example , there is zero composite tornado parameters for hybrid tornadoes

there are no cape vs DCAPE parameters (helpful for finding a cold pool vs tornadic vs throwing Mesos away and nothing happens) events

but i can at least say it seems there are zero composite parameter that both has moister and a capping limit so it would not overflow (a big issue with the VTP)


we can talk about known composite parameters.

lost composite parameters (i know a few)

and create are own parameters to better forecast , instead of just... slowly taking hours to look at every little part and then its too late it already pass...

(i have 3 composite parameters i am currently making)

il start with something simple

the possible hazard type in my opinion is kind of a good idea but poorly made

View attachment 44422

1: PDS TOR is made to be a all parameters from under are here and are max out, sadly 2 things they missed (STPF should be at 4 not 3) and the biggest one is the LowRH + MidRH parameter .... is missing.... ive seen multiple times of PDS TOR areas with nothing happening and one of the biggest 2 reasons is the lack of the RH part

2: how the second MRGL TOR is made makes one option impossible to reach , this can simply be fix by changing the STPE to 0.5

3: missing parameters , what is seen on the side , MLCAPE , BWD 0-6 km , MLLCL height , RH and K index should be given to all of the TOR

4:for the RH situation that is currently for one TOR should also be limited of how high it can go , if its too height its become a rain stratus mess

5: Low K index / TT index is a major thing i see for when a clear Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency event happens.

6:MLCIN for PDS should be limited to -1 or -2 as 95% of all sig tornado happened in a -2 to -60 cin

7:LCL should be limited for how low for the stratus mess situation

what i show you are just the Major change and major additional parameters for it.

there are other minor parameters i would add, i would also make one for hybrids and landspouts , as they would not even be showing up as SVR or TOR on some events.

i shall later post other things here , anyone can come up with their own ideas.
Click to expand...
Lapse rates>7.0 C/KM
Dryline Setup/Powerful Cold Front
Large Curved Clockwise/Counterclockwise Looping Hodographs
LI<-6
Backed or Veering Winds
Negativity Tilted Trough(This can vary)
Temps in the low to mid 70s and dews in the mid to upper 60s

That is to name a few.
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
interesting idea but i was sort of talking about the programming side of things but i think it is sort of the same thing with im guessing plugging in a bunch of variables into a formula
Click to expand...
Screenshot_13.png

Canada seems to have made a poorly made version of what i wish could be done , something like this however...

like you can see ... no CIN , no moister ... and is missing other parameters , however the idea is good.
 
Shakespeare 2016 said:
Lapse rates>7.0 C/KM
Dryline Setup/Powerful Cold Front
Large Curved Clockwise/Counterclockwise Looping Hodographs
LI<-6
Backed or Veering Winds
Negativity Tilted Trough(This can vary)
Temps in the low to mid 70s and dews in the mid to upper 60s

That is to name a few.
Click to expand...
the lapse rates > 7 thing already has a composite parameter called the ESP for short , there seems to be 2 versions of these.
1750642580568.png
 
Shakespeare 2016 said:
That is some things I can offer for tornado parameters. I know gravity waves can help with the enhancement for violent tornadoes.
Click to expand...
gravity waves / boundaries are a common tornado trigger event as seen with jarrell , but then again there was tones of boundaries today , however only one tornado seem to have form , again i feel like tornado forecasting environments can be split into 4 parts.

1: boundary / fronts / gravity waves / storm motion

2: surface area geography

3: hodo shape

4: parameters

rigth now the parameters are a huge amount to look at ... would be nice to have ONE composite parameters that will work for Type 1 , 2 , 3 , Hybrid tornadoes , that would notice most Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency events that are not related in the 3 other steps above.

again i am trying to make that but it will take time , as of now its looking good and even shows the may 19 2019 event as a more Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency event compared to other high risk.
 
Talking about hybrids , hybrids tend to show up in their own parameters that seem to need be separate from landspout / supercell tornadoes

A Typical Hybrid Tornado tends to have these parameters on average
  • BRN of 100-450
  • ESP of over 0.7
  • 0-1 km shear at 2-20 knots
  • 0-6 km shear at 20-45 knots
  • EBWD at 20-50 knots (NEW)
  • 3cape over 80
  • ML Cape over 1500
  • SRH 0-3 at 50-200

I have just made a Hybrid thread today as well

https://talkweather.com/threads/hybrid-tornadoes-thread.2415/
 
and for now a example of a hypothetical event that seems very extreme , to show how the moister can mess up a hazzard of TOR / PDS TOR

3 versions of it , all the same except for the dew point line.

1: Perfect Version (not too dry and not too wet)

1750644165740.png
  • SFC LCL: 200-700
  • PW: 1.4-1.999
  • LOW RH: 65-90%
  • MID RH: 65-90%
  • K index: 35-50



2: Too wet , low LCL.
1750644275019.png
  • SFC LCL: less then 200 meters
  • PW: 2+
  • LOW RH:91%+
  • MID RH:91%+
  • K index: 51+

3:Too dry , High LCL
1750644430339.png

  • SFC LCL: greater then 1600 meters
  • PW: less then 0.7
  • LOW RH: less then 60%
  • MID RH: less then 30%
  • K index under 15


Now notice how the psbl haz shows TOR / PDS TOR ?

well that's why i say having K index as a buffer to not make the psbl haz go to pds when its under 15.

the RH composite formula that ONE TOR has should be added to all and have both a high and low limit.

LCL needs to also have a low limit for the too wet stratus days.


, like i said the psbl haz is a good idea just poorly done.
 
Here is a example of different composite parameters

1750645022874.png

first thing to say is yes there is a long lost parameter included in this , the strong tornado parameter , it includes the DCAPE .

capped parameters means if they have a overflow issue , something the VTP suffers from.

notice none of them take into account moister in any way?

also notice a lot of the old one never took into account the cin? (its good now we do)

and if you herd of the nudged cell theory , then it would make sense to have DCAPE included , and interestingly one did ... and it was lost...

but from this list alone STPF and the lost strong tornado parameter would likely be more accurate then the rest.


the 2 big things for anyone making a composite parameter , both professional and armatures is to take into account...

1:moister....
2:capping issue

note when i say capping issues i don't mean the cap , i mean the composite overflows with one parameter and gets a high number.
example of this can be found here.
https://www.quincyvagell.com/2019/0...ally STP with,favorable for a violent tornado.

this talks about the VTP parameters and the issues with it.
 
Now time to show how these events compare to each parameter

First thing first for the Event list.
  • Pink: the most impressive insane events along with super outbreaks.
  • Cyan:the impressive tornado events.
  • Yellow: the normal or mid tornado events
  • Red: Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency and failure events.

1750646022255.png

Now things to note

  1. Bold are Super outbreaks.
  2. Landspout events tend to never show up on normal tornado parameters this is because of lack of shear.
  3. Harpper and Rozel both had CINH under -250 and are closer in the -300 to -400 because of this they tend to break the parameters (any event that is lower then -250 in CIN or 100 or less in CAPE will do this)

i have 3 composite parameters hidden on the right if your wondering , (STPC , VTP and one of my composite parameters) i will show them in a later post
 
joshoctober16 said:
gravity waves / boundaries are a common tornado trigger event as seen with jarrell , but then again there was tones of boundaries today , however only one tornado seem to have form , again i feel like tornado forecasting environments can be split into 4 parts.

1: boundary / fronts / gravity waves / storm motion

2: surface area geography

3: hodo shape

4: parameters

rigth now the parameters are a huge amount to look at ... would be nice to have ONE composite parameters that will work for Type 1 , 2 , 3 , Hybrid tornadoes , that would notice most Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency events that are not related in the 3 other steps above.

again i am trying to make that but it will take time , as of now its looking good and even shows the may 19 2019 event as a more Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency event compared to other high risk.
Click to expand...
Sounds right to me. I have been learning this stuff for over 22 years and I am still learning from others.
 
joshoctober16 said:
and for now a example of a hypothetical event that seems very extreme , to show how the moister can mess up a hazzard of TOR / PDS TOR

3 versions of it , all the same except for the dew point line.

1: Perfect Version (not too dry and not too wet)

View attachment 44428
  • SFC LCL: 200-700
  • PW: 1.4-1.999
  • LOW RH: 65-90%
  • MID RH: 65-90%
  • K index: 35-50



2: Too wet , low LCL.
View attachment 44429
  • SFC LCL: less then 200 meters
  • PW: 2+
  • LOW RH:91%+
  • MID RH:91%+
  • K index: 51+

3:Too dry , High LCL
View attachment 44430

  • SFC LCL: greater then 1600 meters
  • PW: less then 0.7
  • LOW RH: less then 60%
  • MID RH: less then 30%
  • K index under 15


Now notice how the psbl haz shows TOR / PDS TOR ?

well that's why i say having K index as a buffer to not make the psbl haz go to pds when its under 15.

the RH composite formula that ONE TOR has should be added to all and have both a high and low limit.

LCL needs to also have a low limit for the too wet stratus days.


, like i said the psbl haz is a good idea just poorly done.
Click to expand...
Apocalyptic Parameters!!
 
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