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Archive Former Tropical Storm Bret thread (1 Viewer)


Brent

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118
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GFS Para has a near hurricane landfalling in Florida on Tuesday from this lol

the Central Atlantic wave may be Bret first...

it is June right?
 

Tyler Penland

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GFS Para has a near hurricane landfalling in Florida on Tuesday from this lol

the Central Atlantic wave may be Bret first...

it is June right?
The way way south central Atlantic wave may be first. 5N is impressive any time of year but especially now.
 

Brent

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Messages
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Location
DFW Texas
Well heres a shocker lol it had gone down to code orange in the two

Special Message from NHC Issued 18 Jun 2017 20:17 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM AST on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located east-southeast of the Windward Islands.
 

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Jun 2017 20:59:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Jun 2017 21:22:05 GMT

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...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
Location: 7.7°N 51.4°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017

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...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
Location: 8.7°N 55.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 13:04:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 09:22:01 GMT

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WesL

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON DISTURBANCE ISSUED FOR
VENEZUELA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.8N 56.8W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF TRINIDAD
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for that country.

The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the east coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including
Isla de Margarita.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Bonaire.

The government of Aruba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that
country.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad
* Tobago
* Grenada
* Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 8.8 North, longitude 56.8 West. The system is moving toward
the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). A fast motion toward the
west-northwest is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to move through the Windward
Islands and near the eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves
through the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela tonight and
Tuesday.

Thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance continues to
show signs of organization, and additional development is likely
during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
portions of the warning area tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the
northeastern Venezuela Monday night and Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea
 

WesL

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Interesting the forecasters have slowed it down over 48 hours and kept the strength at Tropical Storm. In the previous update they had it much more west and weakening to a Tropical Depression.
 

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 15:03:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 15:22:02 GMT

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WesL

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
200 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT IS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.8N 57.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TRINIDAD
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that
country.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad
* Tobago
* Grenada
* Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
8.8 North, longitude 57.8 West. The system is moving toward the west
near 25 mph (41 km/h). A fast motion toward the west-northwest is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands and
near the eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves
through the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela tonight and
Tuesday.

Thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance continues to
show signs of organization, and additional development is likely
during the next day before the system interacts with Venezuela.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
portions of the warning area tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the
eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea
 

WesL

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
800 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

...BRET MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 63.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF ISLA MARGARITA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 63.6 West. Bret is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. On the
forecast track, the center of the tropical storm will continue to
move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea today.

Surface observations from the eastern Caribbean Sea indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and a weakening
trend is expected to begin later today and Bret is forecast to
become a tropical depression on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will occur over portions of the
warning area for the next several hours, but these conditions should
subside later today.

RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of
Venezuela through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
 

WesL

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Our good friend @TWBot is going to now take over posting of advisories. Good luck and god speed.
 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

...BRET FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 64.4W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Venezuela has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Pedernales to Cumana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Venezuela Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 64.4 West. Bret is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tomorrow. On the forecast
track, the center of the tropical storm or its remnants will
continue to move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening should begin today, and the system is expected to
dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area, but these conditions should subside later today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of
Venezuela through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
200 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

...BRET MOVING FASTER AND BECOMING DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 66.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Venezuela has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Isla Margarita.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
estimated near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 66.2 West. Bret has
increased its forward speed and is now moving between west and
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tomorrow. On the forecast track, Bret
or its remnants will continue to move across the southeastern
Caribbean Sea for the next couple of days.

Satellite images indicate that Bret is becoming disorganized while
losing its closed circulation. Maximum sustained winds are near 40
mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are occuring well
to the northeast and north of the center. Additional weakening
should continue today, and Bret could degenerate into a tropical
wave later today or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of
Venezuela through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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BULLETIN
Remnants Of Bret Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

...BRET DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 67.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The respective governments of the Caribbean nations have
discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bonaire, Curacao and
Aruba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Bret were located near
latitude 12.0 North, longitude 67.3 West. The remnants are rapidly
moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this
motion will continue during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
These winds are associated with squalls to the north of the center.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: The remnants of Bret are expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the southern Windward Islands,
Trinidad and Tobago, and coastal Venezuela tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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