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February 2018 Discussion

Another 2-3" overnight....this may be the drought ending pattern. Another 2-4" expected over the weekend. It wouldn't surprise me if some localized locations in Alabama reach a FOOT between last Sunday and this coming Sunday.

Meanwhile, we're starting to see some significant flooding.
Sf2I25t.jpg
 
It's been cold today after the rain ended this morning. Its only 36 degrees after a high of 52 after midnight.
 
It looks like we are going to get a couple of days of return flow before each new storm system. That should help us to have instability with each passing front. Thunderstorms are going to be more common, and some localized rainfall amounts might exceed that of what Kory's map shows. Severe weather will also be a possibility. This is turning out to be a good February :-)
 
I'm kind of surprised that so much of the area is still classified in pretty heavy duty drought conditions. I know we had a dry November and January, but December was pretty normal and we're well above normal for February. I know there are defined calculations for making the drought ratings, but it just doesn't seem "that bad." Could be the season, as a winter drought is not nearly as noticeable as one during the warmer seasons.
 
David in SW Blount said:
I'm kind of surprised that so much of the area is still classified in pretty heavy duty drought conditions. I know we had a dry November and January, but December was pretty normal and we're well above normal for February. I know there are defined calculations for making the drought ratings, but it just doesn't seem "that bad." Could be the season, as a winter drought is not nearly as noticeable as one during the warmer seasons.
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Calculating drought is a very complex and confusing process. The most common way is using the Standardized Precipitation Index or SPI. Here is a paper regarding the SPI...very stats heavy.

http://drought.unl.edu/portals/0/docs/spi-program-alternative-method.pdf
 
David in SW Blount said:
I'm kind of surprised that so much of the area is still classified in pretty heavy duty drought conditions. I know we had a dry November and January, but December was pretty normal and we're well above normal for February. I know there are defined calculations for making the drought ratings, but it just doesn't seem "that bad." Could be the season, as a winter drought is not nearly as noticeable as one during the warmer seasons.
Click to expand...

Also keep in mind that the drought monitor is based on data through 7 am EST Tuesday morning, so the heavy rainfall that occurred Tuesday night and Wednesday was not included in this week's drought monitor. That rainfall, and the upcoming rainfall this weekend, will be included in next week's drought monitor, so it could look a lot better.
 
Longer range forecasts show that any prolonged cold snaps will be very unlikely over the next few weeks. Maybe even some 70s next week...

Although the MJO has been and remains in unfavorable phases for warmer temps, it doesn't appear that the pattern is being driven solely by that. A lot of the cold from this upcoming SSW event is going to be spilled over Europe and Asia and not the U.S.
 
Also, don't be surprised if we get a few strong to severe storms Saturday in South LA/MS/SW AL. Better instability MAY work up toward the Southern half of MS and AL for Sunday as a more cleared out warm sector takes hold, but kinematics and thermos look marginal.
 
A couple of my favorite greenways in Huntsville that go along the creeks & rivers have a few large mud deposits on the trails from floodwaters, and that's from ~1-1.4" of rain. If we get the amount predicted by the models on top of the already high water level, there'll be some decent river flooding this weekend.
 
KoD said:
A couple of my favorite greenways in Huntsville that go along the creeks & rivers have a few large mud deposits on the trails from floodwaters, and that's from ~1-1.4" of rain. If we get the amount predicted by the models on top of the already high water level, there'll be some decent river flooding this weekend.
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it is also always interesting to see how close the water gets to Patton Road on the Arsenal just north of Redstone Road as Pinhook Creek sometimes floods the area. Matter of fact, there is water standing in the grassy areas by the road as we speak, so the ground is plenty saturated.
 
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Goodbye severe drought! 1 inch of rain yesterday evening and 5.68" today with rain still falling. Some river flood warning around the area for Dale and Geneva Counties and a couple of damaging tornado touchdowns reported last night across the border in Florida.

Radar rain estimates so far

T79QrJU.png
 
I have gotten nearly 4 inches of rain in my rain gauge since Friday night. This weekend's rain event has pretty much ended the drought that was slowly getting worse.
 
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