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February 14-15th severe WX

I don't disagree. As early as 10am, you could be getting prefrontals with the QLCS but the warm sector is too small. A significant tornado threat would certainly exist. The only problem being that they probably won't last in the warm sector long enough. That strong tornado potential definitely includes areas near Pensacola and Tallahassee. Decent instability, strong low level shear and a better chance of prefrontals. By 18z, warm sector continues to support prefrontals here. I think a decently long extension of that slight will be needed. I just can't see the gulf coast being all washed out tmrw morning, there has to be adequate instability like NAM suggests around there. So likely maintaining QLCS with prefrontal potential towards 18z,

BUT, one factor that could limit mature prefrontals is a warm nose, albeit subtle that stirs around the area. With such strong instability aloft, I can see these prefrontals maintaining. I'll still call it conditional though be cause you can't be too certain with these events. Regardless, from W of Tallahassee to areas like N FL/SW GA with a significant tornado threat. My method supports it too. It's at 100, i usually do 90+ to see significant tornado potential. The QLCS will be able to produce tornadoes too but otherwise, things seem to be rapidly uptrending for a interesting day with perhaps a few hours of significant prefrontal action. Things CAN still change though.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I don't disagree. As early as 10am, you could be getting prefrontals with the QLCS but the warm sector is too small. A significant tornado threat would certainly exist. The only problem being that they probably won't last in the warm sector long enough. That strong tornado potential definitely includes areas near Pensacola and Tallahassee. Decent instability, strong low level shear and a better chance of prefrontals. By 18z, warm sector continues to support prefrontals here. I think a decently long extension of that slight will be needed. I just can't see the gulf coast being all washed out tmrw morning, there has to be adequate instability like NAM suggests around there. So likely maintaining QLCS with prefrontal potential towards 18z,

BUT, one factor that could limit mature prefrontals is a warm nose, albeit subtle that stirs around the area. With such strong instability aloft, I can see these prefrontals maintaining. I'll still call it conditional though be cause you can't be too certain with these events. Regardless, from W of Tallahassee to areas like N FL/SW GA with a significant tornado threat. My method supports it too. It's at 100, i usually do 90+ to see significant tornado potential. The QLCS will be able to produce tornadoes too but otherwise, things seem to be rapidly uptrending for a interesting day with perhaps a few hours of significant prefrontal action. Things CAN still change though.
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Don't know why I mentioned a decently long extension, SPC outlines the areas for potential sig tors perfectly. That 5% area is perfect
 
Maybe I'm off my gourd a little, but I think there's going to be a localized higher tornado chance in central losuianna, just looking off the HRRR there's atleast 2-3 points on the line that are going to have some bow echo tornado potential leading to localized higher chances, the parameters aren't the best but usually within the bookend higher chances are possible.

I doubt think there's really a chance for significant tornadoes but more so a pesky high shear low cape spin up that are nightmares to warn against.
 
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New day 2 by Bentley

MORE ORGANIZED. GIVEN THE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND A PERSISTENT 40-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET, EXPECT THE LINE TO REMAIN
MORE ORGANIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THIS
LINE. A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVERLAP.
 
eh, the majority of models are saying tmrw should remain a fairly low instability day. Unlike what I said earlier, these heavy thermo changes would instantly change the ceiling from significant prefrontal event to weak spinup events. In tomorrows case, things rapidly trending that a warm nose will cut prefrontal convection out of the picture. Likely more weak spinups tmrw with the QLCS
 
Clancy said:
Regardless of the severe threat, that's an absolutely beautiful sight on the modelled reflectivity with this system.
View attachment 50582
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I be honest... I am more concerned about the wind threat from this for Mississippi than I am with severe weather. 40mph winds could easily bring down some of these dead limbs from the ice storm.
 
Getting rough in Longview now, weak QLCS circulation moving thru presumably. Spectrum Width supports a surge in the line with it. Yeah, that's a little slight circulation moving in now


Texas cameras are 5 minutes behind for a odd reason, but i expect even stronger winds when this moves in soon on the delayed cam
 
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