February 14-15th severe WX

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I still think this is a shabby HSLC setup that results in a few spinups at least briefly. Any "conveyor belt" supercell will absolutely struggle to sustain in that environment so I'm not concerned about prefrontal development.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Based on the long range HRRR Louisiana could see a upgrade for wind risk. The low occludes and a decent sized bow echo pushes through the area. Slight risk looks plausible for some areas with a wind enchanced risk not out of the question, but not likely.

Wind damage will be the most likely risk for this event

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Based on the long range HRRR Louisiana could see a upgrade for wind risk. The low occludes and a decent sized bow echo pushes through the area. Slight risk looks plausible for some areas with a wind enchanced risk not out of the question, but not likely.

Wind damage will be the most likely risk for this event

1-3km flow is pretty robust so I would tend to agree here. With any robust RFD surge, that often induces a significant wind risk briefly with the "hook" of the embedded cell. A strong mesocyclone and around 70-90 mph winds sometimes. Just depends how intense the surge is. I do think a significant wind risk does exist from W LA into W MS. with the strongest portion of the line consistently surging out

 

[Kds86z]

Tornado upgrade

 

[JPWX]

I really wish we could get the image uploading fixed

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

SE TX into Central LA into W MS looks like best risk for sig wind/weak tornadoes with surges or mesovort.

In my opinion, QLCS events are perhaps the best to track. A lessened risk of extremely damaging tornadoes and they do help you with bring quicker on radar signatures. I always take events as a learning lesson to improve on things! Hopefully these are quick spinups in forested areas, because QLCS spinups can be very deadly if they strike around the wrong time


A lot don't talk about how the 6/20/25 complex survived nearly two days and it swerved back into New York moving as a southwest moving line! Around 3:30am, a EF1 struck the area of Clark Mills and unfortunately, a fatality occurred from the event. Still astonishs me how that complex produced tornadoes going southwest and even lasted 2 days to swerve back into the US after crossing a majority of Canada. It occurred on 6/22/25

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z hrrr looks nasty for qcls wind damage. I think we may see a enchanced in the next update for some areas

 

[Clancy]

Regardless of the severe threat, that's an absolutely beautiful sight on the modelled reflectivity with this system.

 

[KevinH]

Regardless of the severe threat, that's an absolutely beautiful sight on the modelled reflectivity with this system.
View attachment 50582

Nothing rang any bells for me on today’s D3, but definitely something to keep an eye on.

Also, I did not read the D3 very thoroughly lol

 

[Kds86z]

INCREASINGLY SCANT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, STRENGTHENING LOW/MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SRH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE
ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, BOTH WITH LINE-EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES, AND ALSO POTENTIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
WARM-CONVEYOR BELT REGION THAT EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO THE PRIMARY
QLCS.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Prefrontal development seems unlikely due to a strong warm nose aloft. I've discussed this factor before but it's going to prohibit convection from maturing properly. On top of that, the lack of decent instability! All these factors tend to X out that "conveyor belt" the SPC suggests. I can definitely see showers or WAA slop ahead of the line but if we're talking a robust updraft with tornado potential, that's gonna take a miracle. Regardless, I think significant, damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes are a decent likelihood tmrw.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Kds86z]

GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE
NEAR/AFTER 00Z, WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
ORGANIZED QLCS THROUGH THE EVENING IN EAST TX. THIS QLCS IS LIKELY
TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF LA AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SCANT WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT, STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SRH
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS,
WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS. AN INCREASE IN
TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED, MAINLY WITH LINE-EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES. BUT WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR BELT REGION NEAR THE GULF
COAST, A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY FORM BEFORE MERGING INTO THE QLCS.

 

[Kds86z]

Day 2

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
GEORGIA, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.

..DISCUSSION

@UncleJuJu98 @WeathermanLeprechaun

 

[KevinH]

Day 2

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
GEORGIA, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.

..DISCUSSION

@UncleJuJu98 @WeathermanLeprechaun

A strong tornado or two… great

 

[Kds86z]

A strong tornado or two… great

 

[KevinH]

Right…. Not surprised though because… Dixie. lol

 

[Kds86z]