February 14-15th severe WX

[UncleJuJu98]

Good consensus with the GFS and EURO on a severe weather episode during this time frame for parts of the southeast, magnitude and coverage are still in question.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Clancy]

Not confident you get much more than a threat along the immediate Gulf Coast if the low stays this far south. Things could change, of course, and anything that would get going would have a lot of wind energy to work with.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Compact low pressure, somewhat a good warm sector for storms to maintain. Storm mode appears poor, most likely a linear event but i do think confluence band potential isn't ruled out with this. Some small signals in E TX/Western LA regarding that and plus GFS did uptrend on low level shear with this so any confluence band development would have something nice to work with. I'll hold back on my wording for now. Things can still change in this 4 day frame

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The GFS is already modeling good enough SBCAPE for cells to maintain so the dynamic/thermodynamic balance is perfectly fine between 21z-00z. We'll see

 

[Ozonelayer]

Overall, bit too early to call anything specific but if I had to guess, mostly a linear event. However if anything forms ahead of that (confluence bands, a freak accident in the WS, etc...) then it should have nice shear to work with. SBCAPE doesn't look bad at all either.

Right now, seems like a linear event with maybe a cell or two possibly forming ahead of the line.

 

[MichelleH]

SPC still isn't impressed...

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening
through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS
Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall
severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a
somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this
early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Cips is more aggressive today along the coastal areas.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Cips is more aggressive today along the coastal areas.

View attachment 50555View attachment 50556

12z GFS now rendering in so we'll see if it has uptrended

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z GFS now rendering in so we'll see if it has uptrended

GFS trended south with the low. Although Louisiana may get some rough weather

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[JPWX]

I'm afraid any severe weather threat this weekend is just going to be closer to the Gulf Coast. Only the Canadian is more robust with bringing the threat further north. Nothing has stood out to me from the time when this threat potential was first mentioned to now. If your high temperatures Saturday and Sunday were 70 or above on a south wind, yeah, I would be a bit more concerned.

 

[warneagle]

I don't love getting rained on but if it'll help get rid of the snowcrete then by all means, bring it on

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Do you mean the plastic styrofoam snow lol nah I’m jk

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The GFS suggests a strong warm nose aloft, iffy mid level lapse rates, and alright low level shear. This doesn't seem like a setup to be properly concerned about at least imo. Just seems pretty run of the mill if I'm being honest for the Gulf Coast. Maybe 1k SBCAPE, linear mode and maybe confluence band attempts. Nothing showing major concerns to me though.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Still a Decent signal on cips for the southern portions of the coastal states. Low cape high shear event

 

[UncleJuJu98]

06z euro back with a more northern track of the low pressure through north Alabama.

 

[Kds86z]

Quite the warm up coming, will we see severe wx SOMEWHERE?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The 06z euro at closer look is semi nasty. Streaked convection. Although it shows precip ahead of the main gist of the system which could cause issues. Still low cape high shear