Tropical Storm Elsa

[Mike S]

I'm going to go ahead and start this thread since NHC says Elsa will be here soon.



From the TWO

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 44.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

 

[Mike S]

Now a depression

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THURSDAY...

 

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ELSA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 48.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ELSA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 48.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Here we go GOM!

 

[warneagle]

That forecast track looks almost identical to Charley in 2004. Obviously it's not going to be the same strength, but it just caught my eye.

 

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone
is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the
hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane
Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of
74 mph and a gust to 86 mph.

SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto/Zelinsky

 

[Mike S]

Elsa now a Cat 1

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Lol. Classic! A 28mph moving hurricane.

 

[JayF]

Lol. Classic! A 28mph moving hurricane.

That is actually a good thing. Doesn't give it as much time to strengthen and keep it as Cat 1 for now. Still can provide very heavy rains for areas that probably do not need it.

 

[bjdeming]

Regulars know this, of course, but here's a quote from the latest NHC discussion for people new to weather forecasts who might be checking up on Elsa: heads-up if you're in or near the cone, not just at the "H" or "S" spot. And prepare accordingly.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on
the exact forecast points.

 

[yelsew]

A shift to the west should happen by tomorrow!

 

[WesL]

Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...ELSA NEAR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 77.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

 

[brianc33710]

Elsa has had really high BP for its winds. Low end TS typically have </= 1007 mb. Elsa had 1009-10 w/ 60mph winds earlier, though shes back to 1005 now.

 

[WesL]

Seems to have survived Cuba. Giving the Keys a good run for their money. Just going to rake the coast. These are the storms that are the worst just because the area of impact is just so large.



BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA JUST WEST OF KEY WEST...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 82.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

 

[Blountwolf]

We should all be thankful for the shear affecting this one.

 

[brianc33710]

Pressure fall 7 MBs to 1000, winds up to 70 mph

 

[WesL]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

 

[bjdeming]

They've delayed Dragon's undocking because of this.

Weather Delays Dragon Undocking, Crew Scans Veins for Health Checks

Due to forecast extreme weather off the coast of Florida, SpaceX CRS-22 undocking is no longer planned for Wednesday, July 7.

blogs.nasa.gov

 

[Mike S]

still no landfall. Elsa is just riding along the coast. She's weakened back to tropical storm strength.

This sticks out in the latest advisory. How are there hurricane warnings if it is now a Tropical Storm and not expected to restrengthen?

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee
River

 

[JayF]

What I find odd is that Elsa is not forecasted to become a depression rather stay a tropical storm all the way up the coast.