Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[Austin Dawg]

You honestly should @ NWS Louisville with this. They should be pressured into publicly addressing this blatant inconsistency.

The only thing that will work in this case is public opinion. I kinda doubt the NWS would step in and change things for something like that .

 

[KoD]

Looks like one of them is drinking water, the other has a beer and the third is enjoying the hand sanitizer.

 

[andyhb]

I hate to revert back to this, but...

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

Damage at/near the UK building.

The concrete anchors of some of the light poles in the parking lot were reportedly ripped out. Here is a schematic of them.

 

[A Guy]

View attachment 11130

I hate to revert back to this, but...

That alludes to my point. There needs to be someone to stand up and say, no, this goes against the original intent of the Fujita scale, 200 mph should be EF5, and the idea of 'exceptionally well constructed' is bogus (how do you prove that without plans?). Doswell was very much proven right. One thing I'd love to know is who made the decision to skew the ratings that way. One notable thing is that orginally derived equivalent windspeed when the EF scale was constructed originally put 200 MPH as being equivalent with F5. Clearly someone wanted to make sure that fewer EF5 ratings were given by making sure it could not be given to a regular house (the entire point of the original F scale) and they've succeeded.

 

[Tanner]

That alludes to my point. There needs to be someone to stand up and say, no, this goes against the original intent of the Fujita scale, 200 mph should be EF5, and the idea of 'exceptionally well constructed' is bogus (how do you prove that without plans?). Doswell was very much proven right. One thing I'd love to know is who made the decision to skew the ratings that way. One notable thing is that orginally derived equivalent windspeed when the EF scale was constructed originally put 200 MPH as being equivalent with F5. Clearly someone wanted to make sure that fewer EF5 ratings were given by making sure it could not be given to a regular house (the entire point of the original F scale) and they've succeeded.

I hadn't read too much into the whole Vilonia debate as I wasn't aware of many flaws in the rating system at the occurrence of that event. However, you guys have really brought up an interesting topic that has me now wondering as well that maybe they have purposefully skewed the system due to political reasons or something along those lines.

 

[David in SW Blount]

So what does actually earn EF-5 if even well-built, swept away homes = highest EF-4? From a practical standpoint, does misrating an EF-5 tornado as a high-end EF-4 have any appreciable effects on future computer modeling? I assume all of the data gets ingested by the models to help improve forecasts down the road. Do models ever forecast EF-5 conditions in advance? Seems like the wording is usually just potential for violent tornadoes. Does it have any appreciable effects on our understanding of medium to longer-range trends in frequency of violent tornadoes?

 

[Equus]

Of the 28 damage indicators on the EF scale, just four of them are capable of warranting an EF5 for average ('expected') construction - large shopping malls, mid rise buildings, high rise buildings, and institutional buildings. Even all four of these can be rated as low as mid EF4 if there's anything less than perfectly to-code construction involved, as the lower bound is in the 170-190 range for them. So if the trend of using the lower bound extends to tornadoes in cities, there are no indicators at all on the EF scale that could indicate EF5 damage if the damage is considered lower bound.

 

[andyhb]

I hope I came off as non-confrontational as I was intending, but here goes nothing.

 

[Equus]

Looks good to me, would definitely like to see those things addressed

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

Large house that was either leveled or reduced to its foundation in the rural community of Carbondale KY. Some cleanup seems to have taken place.

 

[TH2002]

Large house that was either leveled or reduced to its foundation in the rural community of Carbondale KY. Some cleanup seems to have taken place.
View attachment 11131
View attachment 11132

This is where the ARCGIS imagery would be extremely helpful. I did contact NWS Paducah and ask where and if I could access them but naturally like most NWS offices they simply don't respond to emails.

 

[Gail]

I apologize if this has already been posted!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Well it makes the storm prediction center more correct with just going with moderate vs high risk. Though ef4 is still a violent tornado

 

[SilentShadow87]

Well it makes the storm prediction center more correct with just going with moderate vs high risk. Though ef4 is still a violent tornado

I still don't see how that would prove or change anything. There have been EF5 tornadoes in moderate, enhanced, and even slight risk areas. Just for reference...

Greensburg: 15% hatched
Parkersburg: 5%
Philadelphia: 30% hatched
Hackleburg: 45% hatched
Smithville: 45% hatched
Rainsville: 30% hatched
Joplin: 10% hatched
El Reno: 45% hatched
Moore: 10%

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I still don't see how that would prove or change anything. There have been EF5 tornadoes in moderate, enhanced, and even slight risk areas. Just for reference...

Greensburg: 15% hatched
Parkersburg: 5%
Philadelphia: 30% hatched
Hackleburg: 45% hatched
Smithville: 45% hatched
Rainsville: 30% hatched
Joplin: 10% hatched
El Reno: 45% hatched
Moore: 10%

I thought Parkersburg was 10% hatched and Moore 2013 was 5%.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Well it makes the storm prediction center more correct with just going with moderate vs high risk. Though ef4 is still a violent tornado

Beyond the hatched areas for EF2+, SPC doesn't forecast for specific tornado ratings.

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[MNTornadoGuy]

Aerial views of extreme scouring near Cayce KY. The largest trench (bottom) is 125 ft long and 31 ft wide.

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

Better view that shows the dirt ejection.

 

[TH2002]

Aerial views of extreme scouring near Cayce KY. The largest trench (bottom) is 125 ft long and 31 ft wide.

Guess nothing came of buckeye05's attempts to get NWS Paducah to check out the trenches on foot. Some of us (including me) are learning the hard way that it's pretty much a waste of time to try and point out specific damage points to an NWS office, even with the exact address or coordinates.