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Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

Hot take: the general public, especially those affected by the tornado, cares more than we think about an EF4 vs. EF5 rating, but that's a discussion for another thread.

Also, in terms of fatalities, this is getting up there in terms of DJF tornadoes on record.

This one, per that PAH information: 55 deaths
Warren AR, 1/3/1949: 55 deaths
Fort Smith AR, 1/11/1898: 55 deaths
Cary/Pugh City MS, 2/21/1971: 58 deaths (very likely a tornado family)
 
WesL said:
My two cents.. feel free to ignore. The amount of devastating damage both physically and mentally for the people in the path of the storms the other night is done. They have pieces to pick up and focus on where they are going to live, get their next meal, etc. With that in mind, those directly impacted don't care what rating a tornado gets, their life is destroyed. Knowing that the teams that do these surveys are very methodical, won't be rushed, while being transparent with their initial findings are doing the best they can with the amount of damage that has occurred. Getting upset of preliminary data being lower than expected because they only made it a mile or two each day in surveying is stupid. Let them do their jobs, work the tragedy and hold off your rating rants until the job has been completed and the final ratings are in. Feel free to speculate all you want (I've enjoyed that conversation) but tread lightly on the teams out there charged with doing the work until their work is done.
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Couldn't have said that any better, Wes.
 
andyhb said:
Hot take: the general public, especially those affected by the tornado, cares more than we think about an EF4 vs. EF5 rating, but that's a discussion for another thread.

Also, in terms of fatalities, this is getting up there in terms of DJF tornadoes on record.

This one, per that PAH information: 55 deaths
Warren AR, 1/3/1949: 55 deaths
Fort Smith AR, 1/11/1898: 55 deaths
Cary/Pugh City MS, 2/21/1971: 58 deaths (very likely a tornado family)
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That's the F4 from the February 1971 outbreak, right? Not the (questionable) F5?
 
eric11 said:
This was absolutely insane...one of the most violent ground scouring I've ever seen
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Regardless of what they find structurally in the Bremen area, I can say with a high degree of confidence that winds well into the EF5 range occurred in this area. It's not even really debatable when scouring and debris granulation of this intensity occurs.

eric11 said:
Some damage photos in Cacey KY, the entire town just vanished.
View attachment 11054View attachment 11055View attachment 11056View attachment 11057
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Finally seeing the damage in Cayce, and good god, they may have gotten hit even worse than Bremen! Above and beyond the EF5 threshold here. I haven't seen scouring and debarking of that severity since Moore 2013. Most importantly, I don't see a single CMU foundation in those photos! Those are ALL poured slabs!! We're getting close to Smithville severity levels here in Cayce. Plus, Cayce is the same area where the deep trench digging occurred. From what I have seen so far, I'd say Cayce was the location of this tornado's peak point of intensity.
 
warneagle said:
That's the F4 from the February 1971 outbreak, right? Not the (questionable) F5?
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Yup. The F5 is the one that touched down near Delhi, LA and obliterated a small rural community called Waverly, LA. Have had very little luck with finding damage photos from that one, but I've heard the F5 rating is indeed questionable in that case.
 
Officially revising my opinion now. I wasn’t feeling this way yesterday, but if this gets anything less than EF5, it will be every bit as egregious as Vilonia, if not worse. NWS Paducah, please make the right call…
 
buckeye05 said:
Regardless of what they find structurally in the Bremen area, I can say with a high degree of confidence that winds well into the EF5 range occurred in this area. It's not even really debatable when scouring and debris granulation of this intensity occurs.


Finally seeing the damage in Cayce, and good god, they may have gotten hit even worse than Bremen! Above and beyond the EF5 threshold here. I haven't seen scouring and debarking of that severity since Moore 2013. Most importantly, I don't see a single CMU foundation in those photos! Those are ALL poured slabs!! We're getting close to Smithville severity levels here in Cayce. Plus, Cayce is the same area where the deep trench digging occurred. From what I have seen so far, I'd say Cayce was the location of this tornado's peak point of intensity.
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Cayce was hit minutes after the new tornado touched down, and the debris signature, couplet and reflectivity debris ball all exploded right on top of the town. The tornado probably intensified in Smithville-like fashion.
 

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Having the most intense damage occur during the initial part of the path isn’t uncommon either. El Reno/Piedmont, OK 2011 produced all of its most intense damage during the early portion of its life cycle as well, and like mentioned above, Smithville, MS is another great example.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Cayce was hit minutes after the new tornado touched down, and the debris signature, couplet and reflectivity debris ball all exploded right on top of the town. The tornado probably intensified in Smithville-like fashion.
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Interestingly enough, those pictures above from that area really remind me of the aerials from Moulton when the Hackleburg tornado quickly restrengthened.
 
The dreaded 190 MPH EF4. Don’t hold your breath. They brought Bassfield, MS up to 190, said they’d do further analysis, but never upgraded it any further. Expect a repeat of the same. I’m pretty much resigned to the viewpoint that the days of EF5 ratings are over. It’s simply no longer obtainable by todays ridiculous standards. Moore 2013 was the last EF5, and I guess that’s just the way it is now.
 
There's no point in having an EF5 rating anymore if something like tornado this doesn't qualify.

There's such an obvious difference between borderline EF3/EF4 damage and damage like we've seen from this tornado (and a few other "EF4s" in the past decade). There needs to be an "ultra-violent" or "exceptionally violent" tornado category that storms like this and other upper end EF4s fall under. It's frustrating how detached the current EF scale is from older F-scale ratings. I know they tried to make improvements to it and we now have what we have, but it just makes a bad disconnect in historical data.
 
buckeye05 said:
Having the most intense damage occur during the initial part of the path isn’t uncommon either. El Reno/Piedmont, OK 2011 produced all of its most intense damage during the early portion of its life cycle as well, and like mentioned above, Smithville, MS is another great example.
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About half of violent tornados in recent years peaked in very early portion of its life like Bassfield, Beauregard, Purvis, Perryville, Greensboro and so on. They all would have a nice BWER present on radar then exploded and quickly weaken to EF2-3 level thereafter. Manfield was no different from the feature of big BWER ahead of the initiate(If they were seperate). The intensity peaked in the early stage was a good guess based on the common mode of this type of tornados. The different part of Mayfield was can largely maintained its intensity throughout most part of its Incredible long life and the sustainability to this level which was almost unprecedented except for the Great Tri-State.
 
buckeye05 said:
The dreaded 190 MPH EF4. Don’t hold your breath. They brought Bassfield, MS up to 190, said they’d do further analysis, but never upgraded it any further. Expect a repeat of the same. I’m pretty much resigned to the viewpoint that the days of EF5 ratings are over. It’s simply no longer obtainable by todays ridiculous standards. Moore 2013 was the last EF5, and I guess that’s just the way it is now.
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I can live with a high-end EF4 rating but this tornado certainly should be rated EF5.
 

The founding of the leveled two story apartment building in Dawson Springs was bolts presents on CMU foundation with nuts anD washers but no bolts on the concrete slab.
 
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