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Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

Equus said:
It would indeed be nice to have some sort of private rating system with unofficial comments and analysis, perhaps kind of like Grazulis does, because it's becoming clear the race to break the lower bound end of any and every damage indicator is heating up
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What's the point of it tho? Why rate everything lower-bound? Is it a political reason? Maybe if it is rated lower it will be less apt to make national headlines? I mean, these storms already have, but there has to be a reason.

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I've seen it mentioned here that when the La Plata tornado was overrated as an F5, there was outspoken condemnation from experts, and as a result it was lowered from F5 to F4. Why is there not a similar outrage towards blatant under-ratings of some tornadoes? Shouldn't it go both ways? Please correct me if I'm misunderstanding something, I just don't get it.
 
Don't think I have any faith left in NWS Louisville.

I do see that Paducah already has some contextual, non DI's listed on the DAT which is good.
 
I swear that well anchored brick house reminds me of the crap Binghamton pulled when they rated the Smithfield tornado a high end EF2. Possibly in relation to their complete failure to issue a warning for that tornado, they even released a defensive tweet saying the tornado "was NOT an EF3".
 
Reading this thread the morning all I can say is 'ugh'. This is beyond ridiculous. Both the survey process, the EF scale itself, and its application, are clearly desperate need of reform.
 
Shakespeare 2016 said:
I am beginning to wonder if none of these tornadoes will be rated above EF3.
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I expect them to upgrade some. Bowling Green, Western Kentucky, etc. Realize all the work that these engineers and surveyors need to do amidst all this damage. It's not as simple as writing down "EF4" on a sheet. There needs to be a certain set of eyes and a level of profession applied to these ratings, and it's a hell of a process to go through. Be patient just a little longer.
 
Tanner M Levasseur said:
I expect them to upgrade some. Bowling Green, Western Kentucky, etc. Realize all the work that these engineers and surveyors need to do amidst all this damage. It's not as simple as writing down "EF4" on a sheet. There needs to be a certain set of eyes and a level of profession applied to these ratings, and it's a hell of a process to go through. Be patient just a little longer.
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The Moore 2013 tornado was rated at least an EF4 30 minutes after it happened. No damage survey occured till the next day and it was upgraded to EF5 that day.
 
atrainguy said:
I've seen it mentioned here that when the La Plata tornado was overrated as an F5, there was outspoken condemnation from experts, and as a result it was lowered from F5 to F4. Why is there not a similar outrage towards blatant under-ratings of some tornadoes? Shouldn't it go both ways? Please correct me if I'm misunderstanding something, I just don't get it.
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I'm not sure that's a totally accurate characterization. My understanding is that La Plata was given a preliminary F5 the day after the event, which apparently a lot of people/media outlets ran with as a final rating. The NWS assembled a team (including Tim Marshall, among others) to do more detailed surveys over the next couple of days, during which they found that most of the F4-F5 damage points were actually sliders that should've been more like F2-F3. Some of the high-end damage was also found to have been caused by large missile strikes and was downgraded since it wasn't caused by the wind alone. Of course, it was caused by large steel beams that had been blown hundreds of yards through the air, which is pretty impressive in its own right, but anyway.

I haven't had enough time to really keep up with things here, but I don't see any reason to start a riot just yet. For whatever reason, they seem to have just decided to slap everything with EF3+ and not update it until the surveys are done. It's kind of a weird way of doing things, but they've made it clear through both their words and their actions that they expect some of those ratings to be upgraded. You don't call in the QRT and conduct lengthy surveys and whatnot if you think you're dealing with a bunch of mid-range tornadoes.

Anyway, I think everyone's pretty well aware of how Atmospheric Anti-Climax the system is already, so I'm not sure the final ratings matter that much except as a topic for debate among nerds like us. Clearly this was a historic event with at least one tornado that ranks among the most exceptional we've seen in a long time, which is true regardless of whether or not they find anything they think can justify an EF5 rating.

Edit: All of that said, I admit I'll still be frustrated if the surveys lean as conservative as they often have in recent years.
 
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Hmmmm, this is now on Paducah's page.
 
My two cents.. feel free to ignore. The amount of devastating damage both physically and mentally for the people in the path of the storms the other night is done. They have pieces to pick up and focus on where they are going to live, get their next meal, etc. With that in mind, those directly impacted don't care what rating a tornado gets, their life is destroyed. Knowing that the teams that do these surveys are very methodical, won't be rushed, while being transparent with their initial findings are doing the best they can with the amount of damage that has occurred. Getting upset of preliminary data being lower than expected because they only made it a mile or two each day in surveying is stupid. Let them do their jobs, work the tragedy and hold off your rating rants until the job has been completed and the final ratings are in. Feel free to speculate all you want (I've enjoyed that conversation) but tread lightly on the teams out there charged with doing the work until their work is done.
 
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