Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[andyhb]

You think so? I personally don’t feel like this one isn’t quite as much of a slam dunk evidence wise. Vilonia could have been used as the perfect case study as to what to look for in terms of construction and context when assigning an EF5 rating. I’m currently not feeling quite the same with this one, though I do believe it was an EF5 event. If you don’t mind me asking, what specifically puts this one a cut above the rest in your opinion?

I would have to revisit nearly every post in this thread over the past few days lol. To say this without seeing a lot of the foundations of homes at ground level is premature (just as it is premature to declare it EF5 based on overhead shots). The extent of the devastation here is absolutely nuts, the contextual clues add up, etc.

 

[andyhb]

The fact that we're jaded from everything that has happened since 2013 (myself included) doesn't make the fact that I've seen quite a few seasoned damage surveyors say this is among the worst they've seen moot.

 

[buckeye05]

The fact that we're jaded from everything that has happened since 2013 (myself included) doesn't make the fact that I've seen quite a few seasoned damage surveyors say this is among the worst they've seen moot.

Damn. Well, I’d definitely say there is surely something to it if you are hearing things like this.

 

[andyhb]

Damn. Well, I’d definitely say there is surely something to it if you are hearing things like this.

 

[buckeye05]

From Jim LaDue none the less. Stating the obvious here, but his words and opinions carry some weight when it comes to this subject.

 

[andyhb]

From Jim LaDue none the less. Stating the obvious here, but his words and opinions carry some weight when it comes to this subject.

Have seen a number of comments from Justin Gibbs (one of the lead trainers at WDTD) with similar expletives/exclamations at some of the damage. I believe Gabe Garfield surveyed Moore 2013.

 

[TH2002]

Still haven't seen a single photo from Benton though the recently launched NWS page mentions the tornado hit that location.
edit: Finally found something just now.

 

[pohnpei]

If I'm not mistaken, Marshall actually thought the completely destroyed church was quite well built.. That may push the rating of this building very high. The building south of It also well built with large anchor bolts broken.

 

[andyhb]

That reminds me of that brick school that was leveled by the Udall tornado in 1955.

 

[OHWX97]

More on the church.

 

[buckeye05]

More on the church.

This is extremely impressive damage. If they go with EF5, it might not come down to residential damage at all.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[KG4KBU]

I have been told both tv stations for knocked off the air when it came through Bowling Green almost taking atleast one out. Those who were in the path and had electric and tv going forward didn't have any way to track it by tv for a little while. I think that the cable and satellite companies as well as stations need a plan Incase this happens again. My ideal would be to add neighboring DMA stations who could take over or even sister stations in other towns to take over atleast some coverage is better then none.

Sent from my T790W using Tapatalk

 

[TH2002]

In Benton, 18 people survived the tornado in one basement in an area where "every other home was completely destroyed".

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Any word/images out of Cayce, KY? After weakening just after Samburg, TN, right on top of the "dot" for that community on GR Level 3 is when/where the debris signature exploded again, with a huge blue blob on CC and a lavender/>60dbz debris ball on reflectivity.

 

[TH2002]

Any word/images out of Cayce, KY? After weakening just after Samburg, TN, right on top of the "dot" for that community on GR Level 3 is when/where the debris signature exploded again, with a huge blue blob on CC and a lavender/>60dbz debris ball on reflectivity.

I believe andyhb posted some aerials from Cayce earlier in the thread

 

[Evan]

Info from the bid questions submitted for the UK Grain & Forage Center:

"Section 075323 part 2.2. The spec calls for 180mph wind speed rating. Is this what is required? Can this be reduced? This wind speed is very expensive to achieve."

Architect: "System must be designed to comply with the ultimate wind speed of 115 as noted on structural drawings."

The 180mph above refers to the roof's wind speed rating. The ultimate wind speed of 115mph would be associated with a Cat II in Kentucky. 180mph was the specified roof rating.

Additional bid documents I found (posted others previously): https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bidnet.com/bneattachments?/487325666.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjM3aKDyuT0AhWsRTABHS9_ASAQFnoECBEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2SOgtQjyT4U6bp_7jEKWUG

Includes full mechanical, electrical, and plumbing equipment schedules along with structure drawings and other usual building specs.

I'm not sure if the Grain & Forage Center will qualify for Institutional Building as per the Enhanced Fujita scale due to its roof material/construction, size of windows, and other structural reasons.

That said, I also believe it is a definite cut above your typical junior/senior high so I think a blend of 16/20 DIs would be reasonable. For those reasons, I expect a 170 - 190mph wind speed equating to EF4 for this particular structure. That's without looking at all the pictures in-depth, surrounding context, etc.

It's a well-built building. I believe the damage lower bound is 160mph at worst, but when considering the quality of construction, the roof rating, etc I think 170mph is a more realistic lower bound. I would be shocked if they went over 190mph unless there's other nearby structures or phenomenon (and there may be because I've only looked at the building itself) simply because of how the ratings process is handled in 2021. My best guess is they'll go with something like 175mph to 180mph.

That's what I would call a fairly rational analysis.

There's about as extensive documentation as you can get for this building. They have the structural drawings, schedules, and full information on every single structural component (manufacturer/model) along with the architect/DE's specs and ratings.

It should be quite easy to determine a fairly tight range for the damage

 

[Evan]

This is extremely impressive damage. If they go with EF5, it might not come down to residential damage at all.

Has been my thought since early on. There's enough commercial/industrial/institutional structures with real architecture and engineering behind them that were in the path that those surveying should feel enhanced confidence when assessing such structures. Especially anything built in the past 30 years or so that comes with detailed plans, design specs, and other relevant documentation relating to things like construction material schedules.

 

[pohnpei]

Something may need to notice about was the UK facility wasn't hit very directly by the tornado. Center passed through north of It and only west portion of the building sustained very high winds carried bu the tornado. You can tell from the intact trees in front of the east side of the building. Had this tornado went into It very directly, the damage would be worser.

 

[buckeye05]

There it is!! That’s the slabbed house near the UK Research building I saw on the aerial ARCGIS imagery. I misattributed it earlier to a different home on the other side of the facility. Glad to know I wasn’t just seeing things.