Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

CalebRoutt

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Wrong. The Bremen home was a CMU perimeter with a gravel fill inside of it, which had an apparently unanchored slab layered on top, which the house was built on. That is weird, weird construction and not equivalent to a poured concrete foundation. Having just a portion of the foundation being slab does not make it EF5 worthy either. It has to be the whole slab.

Regarding the context in Cambridge Shores, you’re seeing things at this point. That tree damage does not stack up to past EF5s, and there was no significant debris granulation. Significant granulation reduced the pieces smaller than the palm of your hand. It does not cut it for EF5, period. There WAS legit granulation in Bremen though.

You’re confident and mostly on the right track, but still getting quite a bit wrong. I’d suggest that you take a step back and ask yourself if you’d rather dig your heels in, or rethink your stance when presented with new info, and I can tell which of those two is best for people who are willing to learn, but the rest is up to you.
The tree damage at cambridge shores most certainly stacks up against other EF5's such as Hackleburg. I've sent multiple examples and the tree damage to hardwoods looks almost the same. I think at this point you're choosing to ignore the evidence. The home in Bremen was well anchored, multiple survey teams were there and said it was. Ashby wasn't an EF5 because nothing really looked EF5. The debris was still near the home, and although there was debarking it wasnt really "high end". Looked pretty standard EF4 170 mph.

As Ive said I applaud you for taking a stance despite all other information strongly discrediting your opinions. With that said have a great day and glad you enjoyed the article.
 

pohnpei

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So interesting little thing here
Grazulis used to use overall sig tornados's path to rank /measure an outbreak.
mmexport1654771126758.jpg
The overall path of sig tornados of this outbreak was about 655.8 miles which would put this outbreak into No.9 in history and No.5 since 1950, just slightly above 5/31/85.
IMG_20220609_183822.jpg
 
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does anyone have photos of the worst damage from dresdon tennessee? i've seen people say it was more around the low end EF4 levels. heavily debarked trees and multiple slabbed homes...

with the tornado being severely overlooked by most people....
 

Sawmaster

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Over a dozen vids on YT if you search "Dresden TN tornado damage", and probably half that many more under related titles. Can't remember the content of these to point you to any in particular.

Phil
 

OHWX97

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Oh, wow! This video of the Western Kentucky EF4 near Princeton is new to me.
Screen Shot 2022-06-25 at 2.24.59 AM.png
After the video ends, the tornado struck the pickup truck, causing major damage and impaling it with debris. Very fortunately, the occupants survived without sustaining major injuries.
Screen Shot 2022-06-25 at 2.17.25 AM.png
 
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buckeye05

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Oh, wow! This video of the Western Kentucky EF4 near Princeton is new to me.
View attachment 14698
After the video ends, the tornado struck the pickup truck, causing major damage and impaling it with debris. Very fortunately, the occupants survived without sustaining major injuries.
View attachment 14697
This might be the best video of Mayfield I’ve seen so far.
 
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im of the opinion the the western Kentucky EF4 is in the top 3 or 5 of the longest tracking tornadoes ever. not the top 10. considering that many of the tracks that are longer might have had cycles in them that went un-noticed. the only one that is definitively longer than mayfield is the tri-state tornado. with its very minimum estimated track length still being around 174 miles through Illinois. i know that those absurdly long tracking EF2's on the tornado achieve data viewer are definitely inaccurate. an f2 tornado cannot track 234 miles while having a 200 yard max width and kill only 2 people. that just doesn't happen lmao. the f1 on there is definitely inaccurate as well. so i think that the longest tracking tornado of the nexrad era is very likely more record breaking then we thought. likely being actually the second or third longest tracking tornado in history.

also i gotta point out that the one F5 tornado from march 4 1966 having nearly identical human casualty numbers to the western Kentucky EF4 is kinda nuts. with the only difference being that it had three more injuries associated with it.
 

TH2002

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I hate it when historic tornadoes (or any) are captured with vertical video so I don't like that one as much, but that's just a personal thing.
May have posted this before, apologies if that's the case, but here's an adapted version for folks like you and me who still despise vertical video.
 
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there's a video on the mayfield tornado that suggests the estimated damage cost was around 3.5 billion dollars......can anyone verify that or will we never get an official damage cost out of it? honestly i believe those numbers. and if verified...well...that's the new costliest tornado on record.
 

pohnpei

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Tim Marshall's article about mayfield tornado(mainly damage survey in mayfield perspectively)
IMG_9587.jpg
 

Tennie

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Here's a fascinating documentary that I found on this outbreak, with a runtime of 1:40:03. that goes fairly in-depth into it:


It contains interviews from some of the meteorologists who forecast this storm{1.}, as well as some thoughts regarding the debate over the EF Scale (personally, I found the narrator to have some very good points regarding the debate itself). I cannot recommend this video highly enough to those interested in this outbreak, and I also recommend checking out the channel that produced this documentary, as there's more documentaries covering other severe weather events on there!

{1.} Interestingly enough, one of the meteorologists, who works for the SPC, noted that had the outbreak day been in a more climatologically favorable time period (i.e. April-June), it's highly likely that it would've been given a High Risk; however, the rather odd time of year added in an extra uncertainty factor since the conditions seen that night had rarely, if ever, been recorded before in that region and time of year, and the forecasters weren't even sure how such a scenario could actually play out given these uncertainties.
 

CalebRoutt

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Here's a fascinating documentary that I found on this outbreak, with a runtime of 1:40:03. that goes fairly in-depth into it:


It contains interviews from some of the meteorologists who forecast this storm{1.}, as well as some thoughts regarding the debate over the EF Scale (personally, I found the narrator to have some very good points regarding the debate itself). I cannot recommend this video highly enough to those interested in this outbreak, and I also recommend checking out the channel that produced this documentary, as there's more documentaries covering other severe weather events on there!

{1.} Interestingly enough, one of the meteorologists, who works for the SPC, noted that had the outbreak day been in a more climatologically favorable time period (i.e. April-June), it's highly likely that it would've been given a High Risk; however, the rather odd time of year added in an extra uncertainty factor since the conditions seen that night had rarely, if ever, been recorded before in that region and time of year, and the forecasters weren't even sure how such a scenario could actually play out given these uncertainties.
I helped out with this documentary, glad you like it!
 
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Can anyone tell me why the Defiance, MO was rated EF-3 (high end albeit)? There was the one well built 2 story home that was well built and had the subfloor anchor bolted to the concrete foundation and was swept clean to the subfloor. The other house was 110 years old and didn’t appear to have anchoring to the foundation and was also swept. Is there a reason the well built home received this rating? Is it acceptable? I’ve always thought this rating was butchered but I wanted to come here for your guys’s thoughts on the DI for the well constructed and anchored home.
 

buckeye05

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Can anyone tell me why the Defiance, MO was rated EF-3 (high end albeit)? There was the one well built 2 story home that was well built and had the subfloor anchor bolted to the concrete foundation and was swept clean to the subfloor. The other house was 110 years old and didn’t appear to have anchoring to the foundation and was also swept. Is there a reason the well built home received this rating? Is it acceptable? I’ve always thought this rating was butchered but I wanted to come here for your guys’s thoughts on the DI for the well constructed and anchored home.
A house being separated from a subfloor is not EF4 damage, and I’ll explain why. Essentially in this type of construction, the bolts anchor the subfloor, but not the house itself. This is because the bolts only extend upward into the subflooring, but not into the walls and sill plates. What this means is that the walls of the house are only anchored to the subfloor via some nails, essentially rendering the bolts useless when the nails pull out. This is what happened in Andover earlier this year.

If someone were to design an extra long anchor bolt that extends all the way up through the subfloor, and actually anchors the walls of the house, then we’d have an EF4 candidate, but as far as I know, such a thing doesn’t exist. Also, situations in which the subfloor is ripped from the bolts and the basement is left exposed qualify for EF4, but that didn’t happen in Defiance.

In a nutshell, a subfloor is equivalent to a foundation with no anchor bolts.

Also, the Saloma, KY tornado from this outbreak is a much stronger EF4 candidate than Defiance, as actual removal of the anchor-bolted subfloor occurred. In addition, there was no violent contextual damage in Defiance, while there definitely was in Saloma (mangled cars, severe debarking, scouring ect).
 

OHWX97

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A house being separated from a subfloor is not EF4 damage, and I’ll explain why. Essentially in this type of construction, the bolts anchor the subfloor, but not the house itself. This is because the bolts only extend upward into the subflooring, but not into the walls and sill plates. What this means is that the walls of the house are only anchored to the subfloor via some nails, essentially rendering the bolts useless when the nails pull out. This is what happened in Andover earlier this year.

If someone were to design an extra long anchor bolt that extends all the way up through the subfloor, and actually anchors the walls of the house, then we’d have an EF4 candidate, but as far as I know, such a thing doesn’t exist. Also, situations in which the subfloor is ripped from the bolts and the basement is left exposed qualify for EF4, but that didn’t happen in Defiance.

In a nutshell, a subfloor is equivalent to a foundation with no anchor bolts.

Also, the Saloma, KY tornado from this outbreak is a much stronger EF4 candidate than Defiance, as actual removal of the anchor-bolted subfloor occurred. In addition, there was no violent contextual damage in Defiance, while there definitely was in Saloma (mangled cars, severe debarking, scouring ect).
What bothers me most about the Saloma tornado wasn’t that it didn’t receive an EF4 rating, which I think would be completely justifiable, but the fact that it was rated low-end EF3, max winds estimated at 145mph. Like… how??
0C806AD6-8784-459A-86BF-7B9DB079B585.jpeg 896D570D-1CE4-46AF-B761-0CA712018B7A.jpeg
 
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