Evan
Member
Unfortunately, those insanely high results are almost certainly data-manipulation/lying with statistics. Those numbers will break down completely soon, and already break down if you choose a more recent starting point. In Israel this past week, of the 81 people hospitalized with severe COVID, 73 of those were fully vaccinated. This isn't too surprising, given that unvaccinated people under 20 are still at less risk from COVID than a vaccinated older person. It should be expected that a higher percentage of hospitalizations here to be unvaccinated people, but it will not come anywhere near the 95-99% numbers some are pushing.
The other potentially impactful stat coming out of Israel is that it appears those with previously natural infection are much better protected against Delta than those that are vaccinated with no prior infection. We'll have to see if those numbers hold up over the next few months, and if they end up being replicated here in the US.
I don't have the time to formulate a full response right now, but I think you are mixing transmission on small scale and large scale areas vs. what I'm arguing. Vaccination rate could absolutely be a driver in a micro-scale (say, Jefferson County vs. Blount county), but on a macro scale seasonality is driving where it spreads (Alabama vs. Wisconsin). However I don't see any correlation in Alabama and Florida (only two I've had a chance to look at) between vaccination rates at the county level and case counts at the county level.
Saying it doesn't make it so. Proof is required. There's no proof seasonality is driving the spread of COVID. In contrast, I've already provided numerous pieces of evidence from reputable studies showing a lack of vaccination is what is driving COVID infection and serious illness/hospitalization.
If seasonality plays even a remotely significant role then help me understand why cases per 100k in Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, North Carolina, and South Carolina are 4-5x LESS than the rate in Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida? While Nevada, Utah, Arizona and Wyoming are virtually identical to Alabama and Mississippi?
In fact, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and North Carolina, are more similar to Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, and Oregon than they are to Alabama/Mississippi. Vaccination rates are clearly not the only factor that plays a role, travel/tourism patterns and outbreak clusters in states are also major factors, but if seasonality is a major factor then why are so many states with different climate, temps, and humidity levels so similar while states that have a similar climate, temp, and humidity level are so very different?