COVID-19 detected in United States (9 Viewers)

bjdeming

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There's really no way to say this without it sounding political, but it's not meant that way. Just common sense: if it's true that Omicron is taking over (big "if"), maybe we need to let go of the 2020 approach, and develop long-term less-disruptive policies for 2022 and beyond that are similar to those we use for other communicable diseases in the community.
 

StormStalker

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The line at the urgent care across from Keller Hospital for Covid testing was the longest I’ve seen it. I guess being closed yesterday may have something to do with it and 1-2 weeks after Christmas gatherings.
 

ghost

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Anyone have access to data for the 3 previous surges what compared the number of hospitalized against the total number of active cases? I would think (hope) that that ration would be much lower for Omicron
 

Jacob

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Anyone have access to data for the 3 previous surges what compared the number of hospitalized against the total number of active cases? I would think (hope) that that ration would be much lower for Omicron

I don't have data for "active cases" over time, but hospitalizations have tracked the 7 day average of reported cases pretty closely throughout the event, so that's the closest I can get for you. Here's Alabama (Note: Data is through Jan 3rd, despite what the label shows)

image.png
image.png
 

gangstonc

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I don't have data for "active cases" over time, but hospitalizations have tracked the 7 day average of reported cases pretty closely throughout the event, so that's the closest I can get for you. Here's Alabama (Note: Data is through Jan 3rd, despite what the label shows)

image.png
image.png
This shows pretty clearly that omicron isn’t causing hospitalizations at the same rate as other variants.
 

Evan

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Jacob

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I'm keeping an eye on South Florida to see if they are past infection peak now. The 7 day average for positivity rate looks to have peaked, and hospitalizations dropped slightly today from yesterday. Those usually get choppy around the top. Should have a clear picture by this time next week.

If they are indeed at peak and start falling soon, the rest of the country would likely follow a similar timeline. Hopefully by next weekend it'll be clear that they are falling.
 

Jacob

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Can somebody explain “The Science” behind a vaccine mandate in an airport where the unvaccinated can eat at the food court right next to the restaurant or bar, but can’t sit at the bar and have a beer or eat inside the restaurant.

I guess I missed that day in science class that explains how that works.
 

Evan

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StormStalker

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My coworker tested positive on Thursday. He came down with symptoms suddenly on Wednesday. He’s had both shots and a booster but he is fairing “okay” with it. He’s high risk. Over 65 and preexisting conditions. I have to get tested tomorrow but was allowed to go to work even though I was exposed to him on Tuesday. My sister-in-law is 8 month’s pregnant and tested positive yesterday. Unvaccinated. Please say a prayer for her and the baby. So far her symptoms are mild. I haven’t been around her
Since last Sunday so no exposure there.
 

Evan

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My coworker tested positive on Thursday. He came down with symptoms suddenly on Wednesday. He’s had both shots and a booster but he is fairing “okay” with it. He’s high risk. Over 65 and preexisting conditions. I have to get tested tomorrow but was allowed to go to work even though I was exposed to him on Tuesday. My sister-in-law is 8 month’s pregnant and tested positive yesterday. Unvaccinated. Please say a prayer for her and the baby. So far her symptoms are mild. I haven’t been around her
Since last Sunday so no exposure there.

God Bless your sister-in-law and baby. Hope they she recovers quickly and the baby has no issues.
 

ghost

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The largest line of cars I've seen to get Covid tested at the local Med Plus has been 15-20 cars long during the previous surges... Yesterday morning it was approx 100 cars long
 

Derek00

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The school I teach at is getting slammed with cases. We're out of subs, so I'm not sure what happens if we lose more teachers. I don't want to diminish what the medical staff is going through on a daily basis, but this has been absolutely brutal for us to deal with. You would think the superintendents would have this figured out by now, but apparently they do not. We were told today that is .5% of the school is absent (not sure how they got that number), we will be closed on Wednesdays so the school can be cleaned. So our district's plan at this point is to basically put a band-aid on a bullet wound and hope for the best.
 

Jacob

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Seeing signs that the Northeast may be at/post peak now. Specifically speaking, DC, NYC, and Boston. Run-up time/surge period seems to be a little more than half of what we've seen in previous waves. Much of the south shouldn't be far behind.

In fact, the entire south *may* be post peak spread. Boston has been testing wastewater for COVID viral RNA since the beginning, and it has generally led reported cases and perhaps been the best leading indicator of where things are with the virus. This wastewater data indicates that Boston has peaked and is falling about as fast as they rose. However their cases haven't peaked yet nor have their hospitalizations (lag and bigger lag). Based on the timing I think much of the SE is on a similar timetable. We may be past true-peak spread, but it'll take a week or two for cases to peak, then another week or two for hospitalizations to peak.

Here's the data from Boston referenced above. The rise and fall was very obvious for last year's winter wave as well, this one has just dwarfed last year's so much that it looks like little more than a bump.

MWRAData20220112-NSgraphEB.JPG
 

Jacob

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Here's the Boston wastewater data up to the first week in December. The fall increase was likely almost all Delta up to this point, and you can see in the graph in my previous post where the curve starts to go down after the 1st week of December, then sharply increases as Omicron/winter wave sets in.

FF5HplFXwA0pfez
 

StormStalker

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Both of my coworkers have returned to work and described their symptoms being mild last most 2-3 days. One is over 65, preexisting conditions, but has had the vaccine plus booster. He reported a sore throat, a temp of 101 that was controlled by Tylenol, headache, body ache, and nasal/sinus congestion. No cough. My other coworker reported just a headache and sinus congestion. She was vaccinated no booster, mid 20s. My sister-in-law also had mild symptons but she has not received the vaccine. She returned to work yesterday.
 

Derek00

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The cases at our school have gone up significantly since I posted yesterday. I kid you not, today some of the kids had to go around and clean because there's no janitorial staff available right now. Our district also put out a press release asking parents not to send sick kids to school, but this is also the same district that said at the beginning of the year that there was no need to quarantine/keep the kids home 'if the parent felt like they were okay to attend school'. Judging from what I am hearing from a lot of teachers, I genuinely expect a lot of teachers to leave teaching after this year. We've had a few quit already and a couple more put in their notice that they're leaving at the end of the year. I think a lot of districts are similar in the sense that the county offices are just shrugging their shoulders and leaving the school staff on an island to die. To say it's a complete disaster is an understatement.
 

Jacob

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Seeing signs that the Northeast may be at/post peak now. Specifically speaking, DC, NYC, and Boston. Run-up time/surge period seems to be a little more than half of what we've seen in previous waves. Much of the south shouldn't be far behind.

Lot of areas are post-Omicron peak now, including NYC, New Jersey, DC, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts, South Florida. Cases/positivity dropping solidly in all those areas, hospitalizations are starting to follow as well.

All of the southern states should peak this week, and probably are already past true infection peak. The upper Midwest states are a little muddier because there was a lot more Delta circulating there, but they may be at their Omicron peak as well.

Cases by this time next week should be entering free-fall in the US as a whole.
 

Jacob

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This headline is based off of comments from Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. We can revisit this in 3-4 weeks when hospitalizations are dropping

 

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