COVID-19 detected in United States (2 Viewers)

Jacob

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I was hoping this would be the week in Alabama when we would stay under 500 cases each day for the whole week. Yesterday was great... today not so good

Good news is the 7 day average is down around 500 a day now, hospitalizations have continued to decrease, though at a much slower pace now.

One interesting note, Michigan is seeing an increase in cases. They are the first state that I've seen that is showing a recent uptick.
 

Evan

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Received the JnJ vax today. Should have its full efficacy within 4-6 weeks. Best news is I won't need a second shot. The JnJ vax is criminally misunderstood and underrated. It's efficacy at 45 days is unquestionably indistinguishable from Moderna/Pfizer. In fact, it is more protective much faster than the two mRNA vaccines.

Moderna/Pfizer vaccines have their own advantages. The bottom line is all three are excellent products. Don't be silly and brand shop -- it's completely nonsensical unless you need the convenience of not having a second shot.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
Received the JnJ vax today. Should have its full efficacy within 4-6 weeks. Best news is I won't need a second shot. The JnJ vax is criminally misunderstood and underrated. It's efficacy at 45 days is unquestionably indistinguishable from Moderna/Pfizer. In fact, it is more protective much faster than the two mRNA vaccines.

Moderna/Pfizer vaccines have their own advantages. The bottom line is all three are excellent products. Don't be silly and brand shop -- it's completely nonsensical unless you need the convenience of not having a second shot.

If I'm forced to get one sometime in the next year, the JnJ vax would be the one I would choose. I agree the reporting on it vs. the others is very unfair to it, not to mention that the virus was much more prevalent during its trials than it was during the Moderna/Pfizer trials.
 

Evan

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So, I ended up having some rough side-effects from the vaccine last night about 10 hours post injection. Came on suddenly. Fever, headache, body aches, etc. It was actually quite significant. Ibuprofen seemed to take care of it after I had suffered for awhile.

I'd still get the vaccine again without question, but I was surprised by the intensity of the side-effects. Don't let that discourage you whatsoever. Just make sure you have Ibuprofen/Tylenol on-hand for any post-vaccine side-effects.

I'm feeling largely fine now. Good luck!
 

Evan

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So, I ended up having some rough side-effects from the vaccine last night about 10 hours post injection. Came on suddenly. Fever, headache, body aches, etc. It was actually quite significant. Ibuprofen seemed to take care of it after I had suffered for awhile.

I'd still get the vaccine again without question, but I was surprised by the intensity of the side-effects. Don't let that discourage you whatsoever. Just make sure you have Ibuprofen/Tylenol on-hand for any post-vaccine side-effects.

I'm feeling largely fine now. Good luck!

Still feeling fairly lousy. Not as bad as last night thankfully. It'll pass soon and was definitely worth it IMO.
 

Evan

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Pfizer #2 is in the books... so far no side effects but I'm only 8 hrs in... hoping nothing hits me during the night.

Congrats!
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
Good news is the 7 day average is down around 500 a day now, hospitalizations have continued to decrease, though at a much slower pace now.

One interesting note, Michigan is seeing an increase in cases. They are the first state that I've seen that is showing a recent uptick.

Michigan continues to be the sore thumb sticking out in the US at the moment. They bottomed out around Feb 25 with just over 800 people hospitalized, and in the last week have gone from 981 to 1294 hospitalized, and increasing at a rate similar to how they were back in October. Not seeing an obvious uptick anywhere else up north yet.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
Michigan continues to be the sore thumb sticking out in the US at the moment. They bottomed out around Feb 25 with just over 800 people hospitalized, and in the last week have gone from 981 to 1294 hospitalized, and increasing at a rate similar to how they were back in October. Not seeing an obvious uptick anywhere else up north yet.

Michigan continues to increase quickly, hospitalized there has increased to over 1500. Other states in the North/NE are starting to see cases increase and will need to be watched as well. None are as noticeable yet as Michigan.

Worth noting: (and I know there's a world's difference in testing), but the North/Northeast wave peaked by cases in mid-April last year. Michigan was around April 9ish, New York around April 15ish. It'll be interesting to see if up there this is a temporary bump for the next couple weeks, and then start a quick decline into summer.
 
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ghost

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Michigan continues to increase quickly, hospitalized there has increased to over 1500. Other states in the North/NE are starting to see cases increase and will need to be watched as well. None are as noticeable yet as Michigan.

Worth noting: (and I know there's a world's difference in testing), but the North/Northeast wave peaked by cases in mid-April last year. Michigan was around April 9ish, New York around April 15ish. It'll be interesting to see if up there this is a temporary bump for the next couple weeks, and then start a quick decline into summer.
Any theories on why Mich is having this jump in cases?
 

Jacob

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Any theories on why Mich is having this jump in cases?

I've been looking around today for a reason but haven't really found anything. There's occasionally a late season plataeu of flu or other coronaviruses around this time of year, and that's national data. It could be just seasonality, in certain flu seasons their peak comes in March, and in a few seasons such as 2017-2018, they had a peak in Jan, followed by a second lower peak in late March/early April. It could also be a different strain spreading through there. The double flu peak I mentioned in 2017-2018 was primarily type A flu in January, and the majority was type B flu in March.

Also of note, the best pattern fit I've found for Michigan is in Ontario, their case trends are a very similar match. I think it is most likely a spring increase before cases start to crash there in a few weeks.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
Starting to see drops in relative cases for older demographics in many states, which is a clear vaccine effect. New Jersey is one of the more clear graphs, where they are currently seeing an increase in cases at all ages, except for 65+

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Other states show it as well, Florida shows a faster drop over the last few weeks in the oldest population than the other age groups. It just isn't as clean on a graph as the NJ chart.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
Unfortunately other states in the upper MW/NE are starting to show a similar pattern to Michigan. Seeing it now in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, New Jersey. Michigan seems to be leading the way at the moment.

Unrelated to that, and a good piece of information for people on this site, some important research has come out in the last few weeks regarding the vaccines. I believe it was based on the Pfizer shot (but is likely true for Moderna as well), but it suggests that for the first 7-14 days after getting your FIRST shot, vaccinated people are almost twice as likely to get COVID during that time period as unvaccinated people. This is believed to be why many areas across the world saw heavy COVID spikes right after starting aggressive vaccination campaigns. After those 14 days you are more protected than unvaccinated people, and it continues to improve past that. This affect isn't seen with the 2nd shot, likely because of the protection acquired from the first shot.

The takeaway from this new research shouldn't change your mind on the vaccine one way or the other, but if you are a high risk individual, you should consider this and take extra precautions for the 7-14 days after your first shot.
 
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KoD

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Interesting- is there an explanation for that?
Off the top of my head I can only think of two possible reasons, both being total guesses and no scientific evidence to back anything up as I haven't read the research:
Being inoculated with mRNA, which your cells make into harmless proteins, causes your immune system to focus on dealing with that - meanwhile since the protein is completely useless it doesn't interfere or compete with an actual virus. SARS-CoV-2 can replicate easier in a distracted immune system. Of course given how transmissible the virus is, I'm not sure "likely to get COVID" is due to susceptibility issues but rather:
People get their vaccine, think it works quickly, relaxes precautions or has a vaccine celebration get-together.

Some analysis into the sample group infected 1-2wks after their first vaccine may shine light on the subject.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
Unfortunately other states in the upper MW/NE are starting to show a similar pattern to Michigan. Seeing it now in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, New Jersey. Michigan seems to be leading the way at the moment.

So now another week has gone by, and Michigan is really still the lone standout having a big surge. It's really odd. Many other NE starts are increasing, but none are increasing like Michigan is.
 

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